Mariners vs. Reds Tuesday MLB probable pitchers: Top Cincinnati prospect Connor Phillips set at 2.5 earned runs allowed in big-league debut

The Cincinnati Reds would not be anywhere near playoff contention this season without the contributions of a stellar group of rookies led by pitcher Andrew Abbott and position players such as Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Spencer Steer. Another touted prospect from the rich Cincinnati farm system is set to debut Tuesday night at home in right-handed pitcher Connor Phillips, who is set at over/under 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. the Seattle Mariners at DraftKings.

Abbott had been Cincinnati's top pitching prospect, but he was called up in early June and quickly became a mainstay in the rotation. The Reds' pitching staff is in dire straits right now because of injury and COVID that has hit the likes of Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, Brandon Williamson and Nick Lodolo (he's done for the year).

MLB.com ranks Phillips as the No. 70 overall prospect and No. 4 on the Reds behind infielder Noelvi Marte, who is in the majors, pitcher Rhett Lowder, the No. 7 overall pick in this year's draft out of Wake Forest, and infielder Edwin Arroyo. On a grading scale of 20-80, Phillips is graded at 55 with his fastball graded at 60.

The 22-year-old was considered the top junior college prospect in the 2020 MLB Draft and was the No. 64 overall pick by Seattle. He was the player to be named later to Cincinnati in the trade that sent Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to the Mariners in March 2022 for pitchers Williamson and Justin Dunn, outfielder Jake Fraley and that PTBNL or cash.

Perhaps it's fitting, then, that Phillips will make his debut against Seattle. Because the Reds are dealing with a bit of a COVID issue right now, they didn't have to add Phillips to the 40-man roster (he was actually added on Saturday). Phillips is 4-5 with a 3.86 ERA and 154 strikeouts in innings this year between Double-A and Triple-A. He has walked 57, part of the reason he's running a 1.41 WHIP even though batters are hitting only .229 off Phillips.

The 6-foot-2 Phillips last started at Triple-A Louisville on Aug. 31 and threw six shutout innings, allowing just three hits and a walk while striking out six. His fastball averaged 95.2 mph and was up to 97.3 in the outing. His heater and slider are rated the best in the organization.

Phillips Over 2.5 earned runs allowed is a -145 favorite. Phillips is also set at O/U 4.5 strikeouts, 4.5 hits allowed and 1.5 walks. There's no prop on whether he will personally get a win, as he might not be on the mound for the full five innings to qualify.  

Phillips will be the 16th Reds player to make his big-league debut this year, the most of any team in the majors. He will be the 23rd rookie to play in at least one game for Cincinnati, also most in MLB. The franchise record is 26 in 1909. 

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