Oddsmakers do not think Group of 5 Cincinnati Bearcats make the 2021 College Football Playoff, either

Could the College Football Playoff selection committee be the reason that in-demand University of Cincinnati head coach Luke Fickell leaves for openings at Southern Cal or LSU this offseason? After all, what more can Fickell do successfully with the Group of 5 Bearcats and yet continually get worked over by said committee? UC is 8-0 and ranked No. 2 in the Associated Press Top 25 but sixth in the first CFP rankings released Tuesday and behind three one-loss teams. Oddsmakers don't like UC's chances of making the playoff, either, with no at -210 and yes +175.

Last year the Bearcats finished the regular season at 9-0 and didn't get a sniff of the playoff, either. The difference is that this year Cincinnati has a terrific victory at No. 9 Notre Dame on Oct. 2, and it was a fairly lopsided 24-13 win. The Irish haven't lost since and are 10th in the CFP rankings. The more Notre Dame wins, the better for Cincinnati.

Georgia was an obvious choice as the No. 1 team in the CFP and the Bulldogs should be there. Unbeaten Michigan State at No. 3 also is fine. But Alabama at No. 2 despite a loss at unranked Texas A&M? Oregon at No. 4 despite a loss at unranked Stanford? Ohio State at No. 5 despite a home loss to the Ducks and zero quality non-conference wins?

No Group of 5 team has ever cracked the CFP Top 4 and the problem for Cincinnati is that its otherwise weak schedule -- currently No. 100 in the country -- is only going to get worse. There isn't a CFP ranked team left on UC's regular-season slate. SMU is 23rd in the AP Poll but unranked in the CFP poll.

That said, If Cincinnati wins out and beats SMU and potentially Houston in the AAC title game, it could be in a good position to get one of the four spots. Michigan State and Ohio State still have to play each other, and Georgia and Alabama probably meet in the SEC title game, although if the Tide win that and it's UGA's only loss, both will get in the playoff. A few unbeaten teams below Cincinnati could also leapfrog the Bearcats so they will need help. UC is -22.5 at home this week vs. Tulsa. 

Last year, the CFP Top 4 remained the top four every week, in varying order: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Notre Dame.

Here are odds to make/miss the playoff courtesy of DraftKings by CFP ranking, with Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State and Oklahoma as the only "favorites" for yes. Oregon seems like great value at +330 with a fairly easy remaining Pac-12 schedule.

• 1. Georgia -1800/+950
• 2. Alabama -160/+140
• 3. Michigan State +800/-1400
• 4. Oregon +330/-425
• 5. Ohio State -165/+145
• 6. Cincinnati +175/-210
• 7. Michigan +500/-700
• 8. Oklahoma -150/+130
• 9. Wake Forest +1400/-3500
• 10. Notre Dame +900/-1600 

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