The Colts rank 31st in yards per play allowed (6.1), which means a big day is in store for Pittsburgh's sometimes lethal offense. Indy will have to throw a lot to keep up. Go Over.

I expect the Steelers to score a lot of points in this matchup against a Colts team that gives up a lot of points, including to opposing defenses (six defensive TDs allowed this season). And if the Steelers are up big after the break as I expect, the door will be open for Jacoby Brissett, who has looked solid at times, to move the ball and score garbage-time points. Only two teams have scored less than 23 points against the Colts, and anything less than 30 from the Steelers would be a disappointment.

The Steelers began the season by barely beating the Browns in Cleveland. Two weeks later, they stumbled to the Bears in Chicago. The results fit a head-scratching pattern of Pittsburgh being unable to cover on the road against sub.-500 teams, which stands at 8-24-1 in recent seasons. Plus, Pittsburgh makes little hay out of a bye, going 1-5 ATS in the last half-dozen opportunities. Meantime, the Colts have a 15–5-1 ATS success string recently versus visitors with winning records.