R.J.'s Picks (1 Live)
The Ravens are coming off a shutout win over the Bengals, but the final score was a bit deceptive as Cincy took it inside the Baltimore 40 on five drives without scoring. An awful Cincy D couldn't tackle Derrick Henry in cold weather, but that doesn't mean the offensive issues have magically gone away. The Patriots are a quality team that lost a close game against Buffalo, and they've been better than the Ravens for much of the season, so I don't get Baltimore laying the full three here.
Everything came together for the Texans offense last week thanks in part to facing a weak opponent, and that could again be the case here. The Raiders have looked a team going through the motions for weeks, losing four of the last five by 14+ but kicking a meaningless FG with no time left to only lose to Denver by seven. The last time they had more than 188 yards of offense on the road was Week 5 in Indy, and this matchup isn't any easier than the teams they've faced in that stretch. Houston's defensive front should dominate a bad Raiders O-line and again hold them to single digits, while the offense figures to score in the high 20s at least.
Two of the hottest teams in the league square off in Denver, where the Broncos have one of the best home-field advantages in football. They're undefeated at home this year, and the offense has clicked since the bye. The Jaguars have gotten to play some easy opponents on the road and really only shined in Tennessee, going to overtime against bad Raiders and Cardinals teams. I have the Broncos as clearly better and I give them three for home field, so I have no problem laying the hook here.
Both teams could get their top receiver back this week, though it's not like either team has been hurting for offense in recent weeks with the Falcons scoring 23+ in six of their last seven while the Cardinals are typically also an offense in the mid-20s in scoring but have had to face a few tough defenses in recent weeks, knocking them down to the 17-20 range. But the real reason to like the Over is the two defenses, as Arizona has allowed 40+ points in four of their last six while Atlanta has given up 27+ in five of their last six. In an indoor environment, this should a game that reaches the 50s.
The Dolphins have benched Tua Tagovailoa, which caused this line to jump two points. But Mike McDaniel clearly thinks Ewers gives him the better chance to win, and he may be right. Remember, this is the guy that hung with the Bills in the playoffs with Skylar Thompson at QB. This is also a much easier test up against the worst defense in the league, which makes it tough to trust the Bengals laying even this many points against anyone. The Dolphins should get the backdoor cover, and they might not need it if Joe Burrow doesn't show up for this game.
For the first time in a long time, the Chiefs have nothing to play for. But this could still be a big day for one of their longtime stars. Kelce needs five receptions to take ninth place in the all-time receptions rankings for his own and seven to take sole possession of eighth. He's also 98 receiving yards behind Jason Witten for second all-time among tight ends. With nothing else on the line, I expect Andy Reid to prioritize Kelce targets, especially as Rashee Rice is out of the game. We saw Kelce catch seven passes on nine targets last week, and I see a similar game in the works here.
I'm hitting two similar props on this player as the Chiefs play out the string. Kelce can pass Jason Witten for second all time in receiving yards by a tight end if he gets to 99 today, and I expect Andy Reid and the coaching staff to try and push his career production as high as possible ahead of a potential retirement in the offseason. I've played Kelce to reach 100 receiving yards today at +700, as it seems more likely a ceiling game is in play if Reid wants it to be.
Gardner Minshew has plenty of experience as he steps into the starter role, but I struggle to see how the Chiefs remain motivated over the final three weeks. They've played 3+ postseason games for six straight years, and with nothing on the line in this road game against a bottom-tier team, it feels like this is the ultimate flat spot for Kansas City. The Titans were close to covering for a fifth time in six games last week, and they've scored 24+ against the Seahawks, Browns and 49ers over the last four games. This team isn't quitting, and they'll be hungry for a win over the former juggernaut here.
J.J. McCarthy has turned the narrative around with two straight quality performances against NFC East defenses, and he gets potentially the worst one here. The Giants are last in yards per rush, so the Vikings should be able to keep the pressure off McCarthy, and an interception rate that ranks 30th means he just had to avoid idiotic throws to have success. The Giants have allowed 24+ points in eight straight games, and with the Vikings topping 30 in their last two, I think this is good enough value to play and hope the McCarthy crash isn't on the way.
The Saints are down their top three RBs for this matchup, but they should still be able to run the ball against a poor Jets defense in a matchup where they're favored by nearly a touchdown. Audric Estime is expected to start, but I see Hull mixing in enough to get over his total. Estime saw more snaps last week but only by a 25-22 margin, and it's unlikely Kellen Moore is going to lean on Estime like a workhorse here. I wouldn't be surprised if Hull gets 8+ rush attempts in this game.
Both teams come into this game with lengthy injury reports, but I continue to be concerned about the Chargers offensive line, and Dallas has been a sneaky good team at generating pressure on the QB. The only time the Chargers offense has managed more than 300 yards in its last four game is against the woeful Raiders, while the Cowboys have four straight games over 400 yards and only one home game not at that level all year. If the Cowboys offense can generate production has usual, the Chargers offense may not be able to keep up based on what we've seen over the last month. I see the Cowboys money line as a value at -120 or lower.
The Bucs offense is as healthy as its been all season, leading to a quality game against the Falcons last week. Of course, the defense did enough to lose the game once again, and that unit continues to struggle with offenses that can throw the ball effectively. Bryce Young proved he can do that at home in the upset of the Rams two weeks ago, so I expect the Panthers to have success on offense. The Carolina defense has played better since getting destroyed by the Bills, and the Panthers are healthy on both sides of the ball. I like them to win this game and I'll definitely take the full field goal.
The Packers defense suffered a major injury last week when Micah Parsons went down, and that has turned his game more into a toss-up. If the Bears hang around all game, they should have high rushing volume after Monangai and D'Andre Swift combined for 120 rushing yards in the first meeting. Monangai's output could be in line to increase from the 57 he had last time if he becomes the focal point of the attack with Swift (groin) questionable, and two receiver injuries could lead to the Bears increasing their rushing volume anyway. Monangai had 48+ yards in three straight before struggling against the Browns last week, but this matchup sets up for him to get to that level again.
The Eagles finally got back on track against the Raiders, and this is another good matchup for their offense. The Washington defense has allowed 3+ TDs in every game played stateside since Week 6, and giving up 21 points and 384 yards to the Giants last week represents one of their best outings in that stretch. We're used to seeing Hurts' ATD prop at much shorter odds in this type of matchup, and even if Lane Johnson isn't able to make it back this week, I think he shouldn't be plus odds to score against a defense that gives up loads of points.