This is too many points for the Seahawks to lay on a short week on the road against their biggest division rival. The Seahawks defense has struggled in the past when Earl Thomas has missed time, and while Drew Stanton isn't a good bet to light up any team, he has enough experience that he should be able to move the ball. I expect him to connect with John Brown for at least one long TD with Thomas out, and the Arizona defense does its part to keep this a low-scoring game. Take the points with the massive home 'dog.

Seattle hasn't looked good in recent weeks, but I expect a much better effort after losing to the Redskins at home. My simulations make the Seahawks -11 favorites, providing a clear value play at -6. Lay it with the road favorite.

Arizona has been one of the worst teams to bet on this season at 2-6 ATS, but not too far up the chart is Seattle at 3-5 ATS which is the worst cover record among teams with a winning record. Arizona has failed to win or cover the last four meetings at home with Seattle, but the identity of the Cardinals drastically changed with Drew Stanton in at QB and a steady dose of Adrian Peterson running the ball. Who knows what Seattle squad shows up, but a pattern has been developed as they've only covered twice in their last eight road games. I'm taking the points with Arizona.

Two weeks ago, the Seahawks escaped with a last-second win over the Texans, but the dramatic comeback failed to snap them out of their early-season malaise. This was evident last week in a 17-14 home loss to the short-handed Redskins in which Seattle committed 16 penalties and two turnovers, and lost despite holding Washington to 244 total yards. Look for Seattle on Thursday to take out its frustration on a Cardinals team minus Carson Palmer that got by the 49ers last week but whose season-long prospects are dim. Seattle has covered four straight in Arizona, and the road team has cashed five straight times in this series.

The Seahawks' defense doesn’t have the same ‘feel’ to it, nor do they have the same productivity they did before. What they do have are great players who are sound in their assignments and still aggressive. Oh, by the way, they have the better QB in this matchup too. Don’t read too much into the Seahawks' supposed demise.