The Bills have struggled offensively and the Falcons defense is better than many think. My simulations have this total at 45 points, making a clear value play on the Under 48.5 points.

The Bills haven't shown much on offense so far, and Atlanta sports a quality defense that should help limit their production, especially if forced into a pass-happy attack in the second half with Atlanta up big. The Bills rank 23rd in points scored per drive and best in the league with just 1.12 points allowed per drive. I expect the Falcons offense to play well at home, but that could mean scoring 27 instead of 37 against a defense that's been playing well.