The Saints have lost three straight openers and tonight should make it four. I like the Vikings' defense to control this game, despite New Orleans' recent run of excelling ATS on the road. Minnesota's offense has improved and the nation will get a chance to see that here. Lay it.

I like both of these teams to have better success than last year, but what stands out most to me is how competitive New Orleans was on the road last season. They were underrated all year, going 11-5 ATS overall. The road success thing has been an on-going matter as they've gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 away. For whatever it's worth, Minnesota has gone 1-8 ATS in its last nine MNF games. The top play here is the Saints taking the points.

I like fading the Saints on the road to begin with, and while Drew Brees is an incredible quarterback, he's lost one potential weapon for this game due to Willie Snead's suspension. The Vikings have one of the better defenses in the league and they'll show up here. Dalvin Cook and an upgraded Minnesota line should dictate the second half as the home team rolls to a win.

The Saints' offense is the key to this game getting Over the total. They must force Minnesota into a passing game, which Sam Bradford is well equipped for. Drew Brees has plenty left in the tank. And Bradford, in my numbers, isn't rated much lower than Brees. In this passing-dominated league, I feel like two of the top 10 QBs should produce a lot of points. Go Over.

The Vikings have a strong homefield edge, and with this being the season opener on a Monday night, it will be accentuated against the Saints. Minnesota is covering 56 percent of my simulations. I expect the Vikes to frustrate New Orleans' offense and cause turnovers. Lay the field goal.

The Saints had contrasting extremes last year, with the league's second-worst scoring defense (28. 4 ppg) to offset their top-ranked offense. losing leading wideout Brandin Cooks will hurt, but the addition of veteran RB Adrian Peterson should give the offense more balance. New Orleans also went out of its way through the draft to bolster its defense, and I expect to see vast improvement. The Vikings have the reverse dynamic, relying on their No. 3-ranked defense to offset their No. 28-ranked offense. I think New Orleans did more to improve, and like getting points with the more potent team.

One of the surprising takeaways from the preseason was how deep the Saints were defensively along their front seven. The Vikings still showed some issues with their offensive line, so I see an edge there for New Orleans. Also, look for this to be one game where Sean Payton commits to the run and sticks with it. Grab the points.

The Saints’ offense ranked No. 1 last year, the Vikings’ defense No. 3. As a result, New Orleans’ games generated about 58 points per game, Minnesota’s just under 40. This total virtually splits the difference. Drew Brees is less than superhuman on the road, and Minnesota's defensive scheme is designed to thwart the pass. While Adrian Peterson might add some juice to the Saints' offense, there is no defense more attuned to impeding him than the one he faced for a decade at practice in Minneapolis. Go Under.