For two weeks we've heard all the angles about this game. But for me it comes down to what we've witnessed over the past 5-7 years. A great team does not get toppled by a team that had one great season. Last year's Panthers were a prime example, as they stumbled against an all-around team with an elite defense. Look for the Patriots to expose some of the issues that plagued Matt Ryan before this season, and for New England to control time of possession against a below-average defense.

Already played this on the money line, and will lay the field goal as well. As much as I love the Falcons, I don't see them getting pressure on Tom Brady. New England averaged over 30 points with Brady in the lineup, so it's not like the Pats' offense is much behind the Falcons -- if at all. The Falcons just played their best game; teams that score 40 points in a playoff game are 4-24-1 ATS in their next game, per Marc Lawrence. Lay the points as New England gets into the mid-30s and holds Atlanta to the high 20s.

This Patriots offensive line is the most underrated line in the league. Look for New England to limit Vic Beasley and give Brady all the time he needs to pick apart this Falcons defense. My simulations have the Patriots at -5 favorites on a neutral field. I can't wait to watch Roger Goodell present The Vince Lombardi Trophy to Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.

I’d strongly advise trying to get the widely available key number of 59 for the Super Bowl, but I believe it’s a pretty strong value position. The Over here is the overwhelming public position, and sportsbooks stay in business by winning these decisions. Atlanta won’t slice through the league’s top scoring defense the way it did NFC opponents, and I expect both teams to try to establish the run. The big game is often marked by slow starts on offense, and an early lull is destined to send this game Under.

The Super Bowl money line price on New England is low because everyone loves to go for the bigger payout on the dog. That's fine with me, as I'll back the No. 1 scoring defense to at least make Atlanta work hard for its points and keep the Falcons in the 20s, not the 30s. The Patriots bottled up an explosive, balanced offense in the AFC championship game, and the Falcons might have peaked in the NFC championship game. To me, the key matchup is Marcus Cannon vs. Vic Beasley. Cannon has not allowed a sack in any of Tom Brady's starts. If Brady has time, he'll pick apart this defense. New England is undefeated away from home this season and stays that way Sunday.

I'm already laying the three points with the Patriots, and taking the moneyline is a great play as well, especially if you only have to bet three units for every two in winnings. Back Belichick, Brady, all the historical markers in reach for the QB-coach duo, the revenge factor on Goodell, the No. 1 scoring defense, the trend of prolific offenses struggling in the Super Bowl and the distraction angle with Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers. The Falcons are a great team. The Patriots are a championship team.

This hasn't been the year to go Under the total, especially in the playoffs. Nonetheless, I love taking the Under here. Atlanta's offense has been prolific of late, but they've also played just two road games on the schedule after their Week 11 bye. New England, the No. 1 scoring defense in the league, has also had an impeccable second half, with the 23 points scored by the Ravens being the only time the Pats gave up more than 17 points in their last nine games. I expect the Pats to focus on long drives and chewing up clock. The fourth quarterback becomes a game of keepaway, and a well-rested Pats D stands tall.

The biggest matchup in this game is the Patriots' run defense vs. the Falcons' rush offense. Matt Ryan has done a remarkable job operating off of play-action this season. The Pats have a well-balanced offensive attack, but I like the fact that the Falcons' young, athletic defense is playing smarter and more opportunistic lately. The Dirty Birds will fly to Houston and pick up the trophy.

By now you know all about Atlanta’s scoring prowess, but we have to account for quality of defenses played, including banged-up Seattle and Green Bay units at home in the playoffs. Going up against a relatively healthy Belichick defense is a whole ‘nother ball game. I also have zero doubt the Patriots will be able to move the ball consistently against the Falcons, despite Atlanta playing better on that side of the ball recently. This is Bill Belichick and Tom Brady we’re talking about here, with two weeks to prepare. Atlanta may get the best of them early, but expect the Patriots to be on top by the final whistle.

Bettors love to take the underdog on the money line in the Super Bowl, and this creates true value on the money line favorite. This one is reading like a Patriots -2.5 spread. I like the Patriots to win based on their defense: they allowed 15.6 ppg during the regular season, then held Houston and Pittsburgh to an average of 16.5 in relatively easy playoff wins. Back New England on the spread and the money line.

I like the Patriots to win based on their defense and I think the spread will go up, so I'm okay with laying -3. The money-line is where the true value is because it's reading like a -2.5 spread. You never are going to get true value with the dog in the Super Bowl. When I look up and down the Falcons' six-game win streak, I see they have beat up on some terrible defenses to pad their stats. The Patriots have allowed just 15.6 ppg the entire season. While Tom Brady gets all the credit, it's the defense that has been responsible for covering 15 of 18 games against inflated numbers. They'll cover here too.

Matt Ryan and Tom Brady can serve up points in bunches. Atlanta has gone Under just once in the past nine games. New England has gone Over in three straight. But oddsmakers and the public are overlooking one telling stat. With a bend-but-don’t-break defense, the Pats allowed 250 points in the regular season, 34 fewer than the next-stingiest team. The 51st Super Bowl will be the 10th with a number north of 50. The Under prevailed in six, and two of the Overs squeezed through by a half-point. The previous four totals closed sensibly in the 40s. History shows that, more often than expected, these finales evolve into defensive tussles. Other times, they are one-sided affairs in which the losing side struggles to score. Not saying either of those scenarios will play out Feb. 5. But 58.5 is a lofty target, and both offenses must be on their “A” game to beat it.

Wade through all of the player matchups you want -- all take a backseat to the coaching imbalance. Dan Quinn is a fine commander-in-chief. His offense is one of the most fruitful ever. The defense, his specialty, was reshaped into an effective unit. But the sweat-shirted one across the field has no equal. Bill Belichick is 4-2 outright in the Roman numeral games. He would be 6-0 if not for touchdowns -- twice -- by the Giants inside the final minute that wiped out Patriots’ leads. Give the man two weeks to game-plan, and the advantage swings more his way. Tom Brady owns two dozen playoff wins. The Pats stand a phenomenal 15-3 ATS this season. And if there is a slight edge in motivation, it can be summed up in one word: Deflategate. Before this spread ticks up, pounce on the Belichicks.