In what should be an extremely close game, I'm taking the points. The Steelers' run game will be the difference.

Due to storm conditions, the NFL had to move this game to Sunday night. While it obviously will help the players to play in better weather, the field is still going to be in rough condition, and that bodes poorly for long, quick touchdowns. This game is going to come down to putting together long drives on each side, and expect both sides to go for it on fourth and short or medium in typical field-goal situations -- any field goals longer than 40 yards will be dicey propositions. Without the FGs chipping away at the total, we should expect this to land Under the number.

With this total opening at 46.5, I was leaning toward the Over. Then, two things happened. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger’s foot was seen encased in a walking boot. And the weather forecasters issued a prediction of freezing rain or sleet. Those developments drove down the number, but perhaps not enough. Pittsburgh’s last three playoff games have totaled out at 42, 34 and 39. The Chiefs are an Under machine at home, going 38-16 in the last 54 appearances.

The Steelers have scored a minimum of 24 points in each contest of their current eight-game win streak. They put up 367 total yards -- a near dead-even split of run and pass -- in last week’s 30-12 win over the Dolphins. The Chiefs averaged 28 points while winning five of their last six to end the season. Both clubs have top-15 scoring offenses, and this should be a faster-paced game than many observers anticipate.

The Steelers hoard the star attractions in this showdown. Big Ben, Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown -- all skill-position players to admire. But Roethlisberger's ailing foot, combined with a mild slump (eight TD passes and eight interceptions in five games), worries me. Moreover, K.C.'s offense has been transformed by the dynamic Tyreek Hill and dependable TE Travis Kelce. Coach Andy Reid's remarkable record with two weeks to prepare -- 19-2 straight-up, including 3-0 postseason -- is the clincher.

The last time I saw the Chiefs make it past the divisional round was when Joe Montana was QB (1993 season), and since then I've seen three former 49ers QBs -- Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac and Alex Smith -- lose when a conference championship game was up next as the winning prize. I like the Chiefs and I think their home field deserves to make them the favorite. Past history really means nothing here, but 1-7 ATS in the Chiefs' last eight playoff appearances lets me know they're traditionally a bad bet in the postseason. What really swings the pendulum is that Pittsburgh has won eight straight (6-1-1 ATS) and has all its key players healthy unlike the past two seasons. Steelers win outright.

The Steelers throttled the Chiefs early in the season prior to Andy Reid's team going on a bye, and the Chiefs are 10-2 since that blowout loss, dropping two games by just two points each while beating Oakland twice, Denver twice and Atlanta on the road. The point is, they're a hot team just like the Steelers, who will have to deal with a less-mobile Ben Roethlisberger. Considering the Chiefs' pass rush, that could get ugly for the Steelers offense. The Chiefs are vulnerable against the run, but their dominant special teams and Reid's excellent history when given two weeks to prepare for a game prevail here.