Swayed by QB Aaron Rodgers' 80 percent straight-up win percentage at home, I was all set to pick the Pack. Then I noticed that starting RB Eddie Lacy is questionable and backup James Starks is out. So I’ve called an audible to the Under. Green Bay DT Mike Pennel returns from a four-game suspension, further upgrading the league’s foremost rush defense. The ground game is Dallas’ bread and butter, but it will turn to jelly here. Plus, WR Dez Bryant is iffy.

The Cowboys have been nearly unstoppable on offense, particularly on the ground, where they have the No. 1 rushing DVOA and three straight games of at least 180 rushing yards. They'll face their biggest test yet, as the Packers have yet to allow more than 50 yards on the ground in a game and are getting plus run defender Mike Pennel back from suspension. The game could rest upon Dak Prescott's shoulders, and he may have to be perfect yet again for the Cowboys to win this one. I think Aaron Rodgers gets on track here with Orlando Scandrick expected to miss the game.