Brad's Picks (2 Live)
This is an intriguing match-up between two clubs hoping to get off to a flying start to the 2026 World Cup. I like the under in this match. First and foremost, the under has hit in 10 of Uruguay's last 13 matches. They should be able to keep Saudi Arabia out of the back of the net. I also think it’s going to be very hot and humid in Miami when these two teams play. The weather could influence the pace of this match. Factor in really good defending from Uruguay, and this match could be terribly low scoring.
This is one that I am more than willing to be wrong about. I plan on actively fading this Dutch team a few times in the tournament. Due to the slew of injuries this Japanese side faces, I’m only taking a small position on Japan. Right now, I think the Netherlands are slightly overrated in the market. In the same vein, Japan is underrated. This is a Japan side that beat England, Scotland, and Brazil in the lead up to the World Cup. From a tactical standpoint, Japan should be able to exploit the Dutch high line, get behind it, and capitalize.
Typically, I wouldn’t love laying big numbers like this, but Germany should feast against a Curaçao team that has been outscored 11-2 over its last three matches. Giving up two goals to China while failing to score is embarrassing enough, but Curaçao also conceded five to Australia and four to Scotland. This feels like a team coming into the World Cup ready to celebrate a great qualification story, but not necessarily one built to slow down a high-octane Germany side. Defensively, Curaçao should struggle badly here, especially against a Germany team that will be eager to put the failures of the last World Cup behind them.
Brazil have so much attacking talent and such a storied history that people may be too quick to overlook Morocco. This is a Morocco team that made it to the semifinals of the 2022 World Cup and proved they can go toe-to-toe with anyone. They play a strong, physical brand of football. They don’t allow much space, and they don’t let individuals beat them with ease. Brazil may be the more talented side, but this match should be closer than the market suggests. There is value on Morocco double chance.
Don’t call me a homer with this bet, but I think the USA is a talented enough team to win their opening match. They are dangerous in front of net with Folarin Balogun. When he’s on, he’s a rocket ship. Weston McKinnie will be extra influential to this team as well. Let’s not forget about Christian Pulisic. Captain America had a rough domestic season but he always shines when donning the Stars and Stripes. USA wins.
I don’t rate Czechia all that high. I hate to say it but “who have they beaten!?” South Korea aren’t perfect, especially defensively. But, their attack is enough for me to believe they stay in this match. Son, Lee Kang-In, Hwang, three formidable members of the attack. I love how this South Korea team presses with aggression and never plays themselves out of matches. If their defense is on, they win in a big way.
We have the opening match of the tournament, and all eyes will be on Mexico. That also means South Africa should feel just about all of the pressure in this spot. For me, this is an easy under bet unless Mexico goes out and wins 3-0. South Africa simply do not create enough going forward, and now they have to play Mexico in Mexico, in front of what should be a wild crowd. The surprise is that South Africa are good enough defensively to keep Mexico from completely running wild. I don’t think they offer enough to threaten consistently, but I do think they can make Mexico work for everything. My projected scoreline is 2-0 Mexico, which keeps me firmly on the under.
I’m backing PSG to win. Arsenal have been incredible defensively, but I still don’t trust their attack, especially if they need to chase a goal against a PSG side that should have the better attacking matchups in this one. Luis Enrique is an incredible manager, and I give him the edge over Mikel Arteta in this spot. When you look at the matchups across the pitch, PSG look more than equipped to win this in 90 minutes.
This could be a high-flying match, but history suggests it’s more likely to be a snoozefest than a barn burner. Before PSG’s 5-0 win over Inter Milan last year, six straight Champions League finals went under 2.5 goals. Arsenal are built to play slow and controlled, and their defense has been elite. They have conceded just 0.43 goals per match in the Champions League and 0.71 domestically. PSG are not exactly slouches defensively either. Add in the fact that BTTS has not hit in seven straight UCL finals, and the under becomes even more enticing. In my eyes, someone wins this 1-0 or 2-0, giving us value on the under.
Girona are in a must-win spot at home. With three points, they give themselves a real chance to fight off relegation. With a loss, they are going down. I expect a big effort from them, and fortunately, they get an Elche side that has struggled badly away from home this season. Elche have just one road win all year and have lost eight of their last nine away matches. Girona are not exactly a team I trust, but given the situation and the opponent, this feels like a must-play spot.
West Ham desperately need a win. Three points would give them a chance to stave off relegation, and while Leeds have been strong overall, they have been living dangerously in recent matches. They conceded over 3.0 xG to Brighton and were lucky those chances were not punished. In a do-or-die spot, West Ham should be the side capable of capitalizing. At a comfortable price, I’m backing the home team.
Barcelona have a chance to finish a great season on a high note against a Valencia side they have dominated. Over the last five meetings, Barcelona have outscored them 24-3. Even with some potential motivation concerns after winning the league, this is still a solid price to back the champions.
Juventus need a win and some luck to qualify for the Champions League. There’s no way Torino want Juventus to win the Derby della Mole in their building. Especially if it means they have a chance to ruin Juventus’ season. The last time Juventus beat Torino by more than one goal at the Stadio Olimpico was in 2016. I like taking Torino spread; if Juventus win, it’s by no more than one goal.
The final matchday of the season should be a fun one for Liverpool. They are 3-2-0 in their last five final home Premier League matches, and this could also be the sendoff for Mohamed Salah. I expect Liverpool to bring plenty of energy at Anfield against a Brentford side that has struggled away from home and has been leaky at the back. With the crowd behind them and plenty of attacking motivation, this feels like a spot where Liverpool can close the season with a strong performance.
Manchester City lost the Premier League last week, and Aston Villa won the Europa League midweek. So why am I laying City -1.5? For starters, this is Pep Guardiola’s last match in charge, and City are at the Etihad, where they’ve been dominant all season. They have lost just once at home and usually win by margin. Villa may also rotate. Even if they don’t, those players were partying in Istanbul midweek, then returned for a trophy parade. There’s no way they have been training, and it’s hard to imagine they have the motivation. This feels like a City smash spot. I’ll lay the -1.5.