Jose Mourinho’s side is anything but a finished product, but I love this spot for Madrid in the home opener. The attack should have every opportunity to get going against a Real Sociedad side that did not exactly inspire confidence during preseason. Naturally, I looked toward the Madrid team total first, but I prefer laying the -1.5 here. Sociedad struggled throughout its warmup matches, and this feels like a difficult place to suddenly figure things out. Madrid should control possession, create plenty of chances and eventually pull away. I have this finishing somewhere in the 3-0 or 3-1 range, which makes Madrid -1.5 my preferred way to play it.

I’m not sure what a fair price on Chelsea against Fulham should be, but I know it should be much higher than -120. Fulham lost their manager and didn’t reload the way I expected, so this could be a difficult season for them. Chelsea are on the opposite end of the spectrum. The talent is obvious, especially in attack, but the biggest addition could be Alonso. He’s a proven winner and an excellent tactician who could finally push this group over the hump. I have Chelsea challenging for the Premier League title this season, and that makes taking care of business in matches like this critical. At -120, I’m willing to back Chelsea for all three points.

I think Tottenham did a really nice job this offseason, adding Sandro Tonali and making some needed adjustments to the roster. Roberto De Zerbi should also be an upgrade on the touchline, and there is enough quality here for Tottenham to take a step forward. On the other side, Brentford can score with the best of them, especially at home. I do think Tottenham get something out of this match, but I have a hard time seeing it stay under three goals. Both teams have plenty of attacking talent, and both can be vulnerable defensively. For me, there’s no need to overthink it. I’m backing Over 2.5 goals and expecting an open match with chances on both ends.

Nottingham Forest lost Elliot Anderson to Manchester City, and there’s no doubt he’ll be difficult to replace. Still, bringing in Oliver Glasner feels like a managerial upgrade, and there is plenty of talent throughout this midfield and attack. Forest are also a completely different team at home. Defensively, they can be vulnerable, but the City Ground remains a difficult place to play. Leeds won just two away matches all of last season while averaging only 1.04 goals per game. I don’t necessarily need Forest to win outright here, either. Getting them on a draw no bet gives us some protection while backing the more talented team in a strong home spot.

I like Arsenal a lot in this match. I would play them to win to nil, but that price is outrageous. I’d much rather sit it out or take Arsenal -2. Under 3 is also a solid option, but I’m not sure Coventry can stay disciplined and compact for 90 minutes. Arsenal made an already dominant midfield even better by adding Bruno Guimarães this offseason, and I also love the addition of Christos Tzolis. He gives them another dangerous, creative winger who should bring more balance to the attack. I think Arsenal control this from start to finish. I have it finishing 2-0 or 3-0, which makes Arsenal -2 my preferred play.

This is a simple talent advantage for Marseille, especially at home. They won 11 of 17 home matches last season while averaging 2.41 goals per game, and I expect that strong home form to carry over here. I do like Marseille’s team total over 1.5 goals, but I would rather back them on the handicap. The -145 moneyline is a little too expensive for me, so I’ll take Marseille to win by at least two goals and chase the better price. Strasbourg lost one of their most influential players and their manager, so there could be an adjustment period. Marseille are simply the better team, they’re at home, and this feels like a spot where they can create some separation.

It starts against Malaga, a team Atletico have beaten in six of their last seven meetings. Atletico have scored nine goals in their last five matches but haven’t kept a clean sheet, so BTTS and Over 2.5 are both interesting. Still, I want to target Atletico’s team total. With Almada, Lookman, Kang-in Lee and Grimaldo, there’s plenty of attacking talent. I have Atletico winning something like 3-1 or 4-1.

I like the over in this match. Orlando City has one of the worst defenses in MLS statistically, but the attack has been much better, especially as the group gets healthier. Adding Antoine Griezmann only makes this attack more dangerous and fluid. I think Orlando concedes multiple goals here, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if they scored two or three themselves. Cincinnati can score with anybody, but they’ve also been one of the better over teams in MLS because they give up plenty of chances. Their xG and xGA both point toward an open match. For me, there’s only one way to play this one: goals, goals, goals.

I’m taking the points with Rayo Vallecano on the road against Sevilla. Sevilla weren’t great last season, winning just 12 of 38 matches while losing 19. Rayo were a much tougher out, also winning 12 matches but drawing 14, and they posted a solid 32% clean sheet rate. Rayo also traveled well, finishing eighth in road scoring. With European football on the schedule this season, banking points early is going to matter before the fixture list starts to get crowded. This feels like a spot where Rayo can make life difficult for Sevilla and keep this one close.

I’m backing the home team here. When you look at the advanced analytics, these teams are pretty even across the board, but Denver gets the edge playing at home. Their opponent has scored just seven goals on the road all season, which is hard to ignore. Denver has also won the xG battle in four straight matches. The results haven’t followed yet, but if they keep creating better chances than their opponents, a breakthrough feels like it’s coming. This sets up as a good spot for that to happen.

This feels like a match that stays under. Spain have looked almost untouchable defensively. They held Portugal to 0.6 xG, Belgium to 0.32 xG, and France to 0.3 xG, keeping clean sheets in two of those three matches. They’ve conceded just one goal the entire tournament. Argentina have shown time and time again that you can never count them out, but I think they know their best path to another World Cup is to keep this match tight and avoid mistakes. The longer this stays 0-0, the more Argentina have to like their chances. It has all the makings of a tense, tactical final with very few clear cut chances.

The third place match always comes down to motivation, and it’s hard to see England bouncing back after such a gut wrenching loss to Argentina. Their midfield is also banged up. Declan Rice may not play, Elliot Anderson has logged a ton of minutes and could be rested, Bukayo Saka is nursing an injury, and Harry Kane has played a heavy workload all year, so don’t be surprised if he’s limited or sits. On the other side, you know Kylian Mbappé will be chasing the Golden Boot, so he’ll be motivated to play. If this turns into a battle of depth, France has the edge, especially with Mbappé leading the way.

This match feels like one where we’ll be reaching for an energy drink by halftime. Argentina scored early against Switzerland and completely drained the life out of that match. England weren’t much better, generating less than 0.5 expected goals over 90 minutes. Both teams are stronger defensively than the market gives them credit for, and neither side is likely to take unnecessary risks. This has all the makings of a tight, tactical battle that finishes 1-1. If either team trails late, they’ll do everything possible to force extra time. The draw is the only way I can play this match.

I was shocked to see France priced at -150 for draw no bet market. I have a hard time believing Spain beat them in regulation. If Spain advance, I think it comes through extra time or penalties. France’s attack, led by Kylian Mbappé, Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembélé, is one of the best in the tournament. Spain have conceded just once, but Belgium still created several dangerous moments against them. I have also been underwhelmed by Spain’s attack, while Lamine Yamal has struggled to consistently create for others. France have already survived tougher tests, and this will be Spain’s most difficult match yet. At this price, France draw no bet is the play.

Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals has cashed in every Norway match this tournament, and it’s easy to see why. Norway fully embraces an attacking style behind Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, giving them one of Europe’s most dangerous offenses. England can match that firepower with Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane, and a loaded attack of their own. The concern is at the other end of the pitch. England have conceded three goals across their last two matches and were fortunate not to allow more. I don’t fully trust either defense, but I have complete confidence in both attacks creating chances. With this much quality going forward, the over is my favorite play.