FanDuel (+104). Mackenzie Gore has stayed under this line in nine of his last 11 full starts. In his first season as a Ranger, he’s raised his arm angle which has allowed hitters to pick up the ball better - his whiff rates are the lowest and walk rates the highest since his rookie year. What’s remained consistent is his low pitch efficiency: 4.04 per plate appearance has him in the 12th percentile amongst qualifiers. The Twins have six hitters in the lineup with above average wRC+ against lefties this season. Gore has struggled the third time through the order (.911 OPS), and the Rangers bullpen is rested. At short odds, I’ll roll the dice that the lefty does not have his ‘A’ stuff tonight.
Caesar’s. Drink the juice - Zack Wheeler has cleared this line in eight of nine starts this season, with the lone exception being his first start when his pitches were capped. He’s pitched at his typical Cy Young caliber level: 2.22 ERA, while holding opponents to a .221 xBA and only yielding a 5.6 walk rate. He’ll face the Marlins, who not only see the sixth fewest pitches per plate appearance as a team (3.81), but also have only mustered a .715 OPS over the last month against righties. Yes, it’s pricey, but this one is even worth a half unit at over 18.5 outs at +115 or better, as I have him projected at 20 outs today.
DraftKings. I’ll bite on this line. Terrific hitting conditions are expected tonight at Fenway Park, but this line still reads as too high. Nathan Eovaldi does a good job is suppressing hard contact, especially against righties. Versus that side of the platoon Eovaldi allows a .219 average (.234 xBA) with well above average groundball and hard hit rates. He’Lloyd face five righties tonight, and six total Red Sox who possess xBA’s of lower than .250 against righties. Eovaldi is under this line in 9/12 starts this season.
Caesar’s. Two factors at bay here that skew me towards the under. For one, the Diamondbacks are an excellent hitting team against left-handed pitching - .767 OPS on the season, and .857 OPS over the last month (with a 132 OPS). Secondly, we have great hitting conditions at Great American Ballpark in the earlier part of the game, leading into rain. Andrew Abbott isn’t the most efficient pitcher (3.97 pitches per plate appearance, 1.48 WHIP at home), and for him to clear this line, it might be a race against the impending weather.
Caesar’s. Kyle Harrison fits my archetype of “stuff so good that it’s hard for him to control and stay efficient” starting pitcher. The Brewers got their hands on the once top prospect this season and predictably got the best out of him immediately. Harrison is pitching to a 2.71 ERA (3.51 xERA). However, he’s under this outs line in 8/12 starts, mainly due to his 4.28 pitches per plate appearance - the highest mark among qualified pitchers. He’ll face the Phillies who are third highest in that metric against left handed pitchers. If the Phils can scrape together anything offensively, they should be able to chase Harrison before the end of the sixth.
FanDuel (-114). This remains a very ambitious line for Grayson Rodriguez, who has yet to complete six innings in any of his five starts this season. Pitching to a 8.10 ERA (6.66 xERA), Rodriguez has been crushed by left handed hitters to the tune of a 1.032 OPS. The Rays are likely to start six southpaws in the lineup today. And overall, the Rays have become one of the more patient teams over the course of the season, with the sixth lowest chase rate over the last month.
FanDuel. I’m viewing this more of an opportunity stat than anything. Jose Alvarado was the unsung hero of Game 4, playing closing minutes down the stretch alongside fellow point guard Jalen Brunson. Alvarado, a three and D specialist, also offers ball-handling that both Deuce McBride and Landry Shamet do not - a key attribute against the Spurs front court pressure. By surpassing McBride in the pecking order, Alvarado has played 10+ minutes in each game this series, grabbing at least two boards in each game. He is also 7/7 this season against the Spurs when playing between 10-17 minutes. Mike Brown knows the Brunson/Alvarado minutes work - I see this as worth a bet at plus odds.
FanDuel (-140). Sneaking this one in after getting a look at the lineups. Mike Soroka will face six right-handed bats against the strikeout prone Reds today. Soroka has a 29% K% against righties, while holding them to a .187 xBA. The Reds overall strikeout at the second highest rate versus righties.
FanDuel. Kevin Gausman is under this strikeout line in ten of 12 starts this season. He’s seen his overall K% and whiff numbers drop against righties, while maintaining average metrics against left handed bats. He should face five lefties today (assuming Trent Grisham is sidelined). The Yankees have quietly been striking out at a below average pace without Aaron Judge over the last two weeks against righties (21%), and have plenty of familiarity with Gausman.
DraftKings. Landen Roupp throws 4.21 pitches per plate appearance - the third highest mark amongst qualified starters. So even though he’s amidst a breakout campaign, he’s under this line in 7/12 starts, including 4/5 at home. While he did just barely clear this line in his last outing against tonight’s opponent, the Cubs, he was buoyed by a lucky .154 BABIP and favorable pitching conditions at Wrigley (even moreso than what’s expected tonight at the cavernous Oracle Park). The Cubs have the seventh lowest chase rate, and will make Roupp work, especially after seeing him recently.
DraftKings/Caesar’s. Nolan McLean has stayed under this hits line in 10/13 games this season. After a shaky three game stretch in late May, he’s found his form over his last two games (11 innings, 5 hits, 2 runs). The Mets rookie’s phenomenal stuff leads to inefficiencies, as he averages 4.03 pitches per plate appearance (16th percentile amongst qualified starters). That, coupled with a 9% walk rate actually helps our case with this prop - McLean only allows a hit every 5.6 batter faced, or every 22.7 pitches thrown. And I think the books are overvaluing the Braves offense after their blistering start. Atlanta is hitting .235 as a team against righties over the last month, and are without both Drake Baldwin and Ronald Acuna Jr.
FanDuel (-140). Joe Ryan has cleared this line in 9/11 full starts this season, including each of his last seven. Traditionally dominant at home, this season he’s pitching to a 2.15 ERA, 3.20 xFIP at Target Field this season. The Cardinals have been a slightly below average team most of the season against right handed pitching, and the same has held true over the last two weeks, with a .736 OPS. Look for Ryan to make it eight straight non-injury plagued starts clearing the six inning mark.
DraftKings. Shane McClanahan continues to have his workload monitored this season, his first since 2023. Despite his 2.85 ERA, the Rays ace has been capped at five innings or less in nine of 12 starts. Only twice has McClanahan reached 90 pitches, as the Rays typically pull him if he’s finished the fifth inning at 75-80 pitches. And while the Angels aren’t stout offensively, they do work counts (3.92 pitches per plate appearance). Plus, McClanahan’s walk rate does spike on the road (9.4%).
FanDuel. Roki Sasaki seems to have finally found it. The Japanese phenom has struggled in his one-plus seasons stateside, but over his last four starts, he’s turned it around: 24.1 innings, 13 hits, 4 earned runs, 29 strikeouts. His velocity on his fastball is up, touching triple digits for the first time this season over his last two starts (10 and 8 strikeouts respectively). The uptick in velocity coupled with the new splitter he unveiled earlier this season (125 on FanGraph’s Stuff+ model, compared to 101 last season) has yielded a 3.2% increase in Sasaki’s called plus swinging strike rate overall. The White Sox have been mashing, but this is a low line given the trajectory of Sasaki’s season.
DraftKings. Dylan Harper has cleared this line in each game of this series, while playing 32 minutes in each of the last three games. He’s been the Spurs most consistent offensive weapon, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him play even more in a win-or-go home scenario for San Antonio. Bet this to over 21.5 with confidence.