Prop Bet Guy
Doug
PropBetGuy burst into the public consciousness in 2020 and quickly developed a massive following. Actively posting and recapping all of his bets on Twitter/X, making regular appearances on VSIN and ESPN Radio, PropBetGuy became synonymous nationwide with sharp, transparent and profitable prop betting. A former daily contributor at Action Network, he bets almost exclusively on player props in the NFL, NBA, MLB, CBB and CFB. Since the inception of his social media presence, PropBetGuy has recorded a profit of over 280 betting units, at a 6 percent ROI. Almost all of his bets are 1-unit plays, with rare 1.5-unit plays. PropBetGuy is coming off a terrific 2025 NFL season at SportsLine in which he went 131-101 (plus 12.85 units). Entering 2026, PropBetGuy sported a career 57 percent record on NFL player props (+122 units at a 7.5% ROI) and a 58 percent percent mark on college basketball player props (+52 units, 9 percent ROI). He had profited 67 units on NBA player props and 52 units on MLB player props as well. Now you will find the vast majority of PropBetGuy's plays, including his top bets, only on SportsLine. For PropBetGuy media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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Prop's Picks
Logan Webb has stayed under this line in 11 of his last 15 starts. …
Grayson Rodriguez has pitched to a 8.82 ERA at home. …
FanDuel (+102). This is an ambitious line for Aaron Nola, given how he’s pitched this season. The righty has a 5.12 ERA, while staying under this line in 18 of 26 starts. He’ll face a suddenly hot Mariners lineup - Seattle has strung together a .771 OPS over the last two weeks against righties, keeping all six starters they’ve faced under their outs line in that span (and 10 of the last 14 true righty starters).
DraftKings. Will Warren has allowed at least five hits in 15/24 starts, including 8/11 at home. His .265 average against overall matches his .265 xBA, which is boosted at Yankee Stadium due to his lower walk rate at home (6.8%). While the Astros bats have gone cold of late, coming into the Bronx after an off day, in the middle of a late August playoff push reads as a very obvious “buy low” spot for the veteran-laden lineup.
DraftKings. Braxton Ashcraft has stayed under this line in 17/25 starts this season. He’s coming off a complete game and eight-inning outing, which brings his total innings this season to 149.1 - having only thrown 118 last season (and none above 73 in the five before), the Pirates are likely to scale back on the righty’s workload at some point. Whether that comes tonight or not, I like his chances to stay under this line. Even with the Padres now hitting better (.256 over the last two weeks against righties), they do walk a lot, which lowers their overall hit totals. Ashcraft dominates right-handed hitters (.215 average, .205 xBA), which should bode well for the top of the Padres order.
FanDuel (-136). Merrill Kelly has really struggled this season. Pitching to a 5.37 ERA, he’s actually a regression candidate, with his expected ERA at 7.23. His last two starts have yielded six earned runs in each, and his leash has shortened (80, 71 and 86 pitches over his last three). The Diamondbacks bullpen isn’t in great shape, but Arizona is battling for playoff positioning, and don’t have the luxury to mess around if Kelly is getting shelled. And he might tonight - the Cubs have sported an .818 OPS over the last two weeks versus righties, and have the third lowest team chase rate.
FanDuel (-136). Andrew Abbott has a tough draw on Sunday. The Reds lefty will face the Diamondbacks, who’ve been destroying lefty pitching at home this season (.871 OPS) and in general of late (.845 over the last 30 days). Even without Ketel Marte, the D-backs have seven hitters in the lineup with a 100 wRC+ or better against lefties today. Abbott is under this line in 9/14 starts against the top half of the league against lefties this season.
FanDuel (+106). Bryce Miller is under this line in 9/16 starts this season, including four of his last five in which he’s pitching to a 7.18 ERA. The Mariners are fighting for their life in the crowded AL Wild Card race, and don’t have much room for error going forward. The Cubs have been swinging a hot bat, with a .798 OPS off righties over the last two weeks. And Chicago will stay patient, with the third lowest team chase rate and fourth most pitches per plate appearance.
Caesar’s / MGM. Carlos Rodon returned from yet another in season injury to throw 66 pitches five days ago against the Orioles. It’s hard to see the Yankees pushing the oft-injured pitcher more than five innings (80-85 pitches) in this one, especially against a Blue Jays lineup he’s struggled against.
DraftKings. This is an easy pull. Mike Soroka dominates righties: .180 average allowed, 29.2% whiff rate, 29.6% K%. The Reds are trotting out six righties today, all of whom have a 23% or worse K% and a 27.5% whiff % over the last 20 games against righties. Overall, the Reds offense is a disaster right now: 26.7% K% and a .543 OPS against righties over the last two weeks. Soroka is built back up to 80 pitches after suffering a glute injury - he should be back to 90-100 today.
DraftKings. Hunter Brown remains one of the tougher pitchers to string off hits against - with only 49 allowed in 68.2 innings, Brown sports a .199 average allowed, and a .206 xBA. When you toss in his exorbitant 13.8% walk rate, Brown only allows a hit in 16.8% of his plate appearances. He’ll face a depleted Athletics lineup that’s struggled away from home this season.
DraftKings. Matthew Boyd has stayed under this line in 9/15 games this season, including all seven contests against teams in the bottom half of average against lefties. The Mariners happen to be the league’s worst hitting team against lefties - .216 on the season, and .212 over the last 30 days. And thanks to an above average walk rate (9.2% on the season vs lefties), Seattle’s hit per plate appearance rate is .190. Boyd has been a much better pitcher outside of Wrigley this season (2.57 ERA, .208 hit per plate appearance).
DraftKings. Joey Cantillo is under this line in 17/25 full starts this season, including 10/13 on the road. Not an efficient pitcher - Cantillo sports a 10.9% walk rate and needs 4.01 pitches per plate appearance, both in the bottom 20th percentile amongst qualifiers. He’s also not someone the Guardians allow the longest leash to - he averages 85 pitches per full start (82 since the all star break). Pitching at Coors Field for the first time in his career, I like this to be a shorter outing.
DraftKings. This is a nice spot at plus/short odds. Peter Lambert has cleared this line in 12/21 starts, but 8/11 against teams in the bottom half of K% against right handed pitching. The Angels rank 29th at 25.1%, and have been no better of late, K’ing at 25.9% over the last two weeks against righties. With six lefties in the lineup today (Lambert’s better split), and six hitters with a 25% or worse K% against righties over the last 20 games, I like Lambert to clear this line within his first 21 hitters faced.
DraftKings. Gerrit Cole has stayed under this line in 10/15 starts, including each of his last four. He’s been particularly dominant against lefties, holding them to a .205 average and a .642 OPS. He’ll face six lefties, in an Orioles lineup that’s only managed a .718 OPS against righties over the last two weeks.