Clark Schmidt has not been bad this year with a 2-0 record and 3.55 ERA but his 4.58 expected ERA points to his future performances likely falling more in line with his 4.64 ERA from last year. He's struggled when attempting to go a third time through the batting order and the Yankees bullpen should be readily available for Aaron Boone to play the matchup game against the Orioles lefties as the game moves on. Schmidt went over this number in just 9/32 starts last year (0/5 this year), and I'm not convinced a road battle vs a tough division rival is the best spot to push him - especially after he struggled in the 6th inning last start vs the A's. -120 on MGM.

I'm on the OVER at the opening number of 8.5 on DraftKings and Caesars. Both teams are top 5 offenses against right-handed pitching, with low strikeout and high walk rates. With temps in the 90's and winds blowing out this should play like a midsummer game in Baltimore. I'm on the OVER while a 5-4 game cashes a ticket. This total should be 9.5 (-115).