Performance basics are not always very complicated...especially if a team isn't scoring runs. "Unders" then become the default recommendation, and why not when it comes to the A's, whose offense has completely stalled in the past ten days, including six losses in a row. In the last five of those, Oakland has scored only nine runs, prompting us to look "under" at every opportunity. Especially tonight, as KC's Seth Lugo 6-1, 1.66 ERA) has been hard to hit for anyone, much less a slumping foe. Our only issue here is if Ross Stripling and the A's bullpen can keep the Royals in relative check. Play A's-Royals "Under"

We have been backing Royals with Lugo on bump all season, as the AL can't really seem to figure him out. He gets a faltering A's lineup here and while I think Ross Stripling is generally underrated, Sally got him twice in 7 ABs and A's pen might be running on fumes. Royals are 6-2 in Lugo's 8 starts in April/May, only losses were to teams leading division at the time (BAL and MIL) and all 6 wins by 2 runs or more. KC has +12 RD in his last 4 starts. A's in 2-11 rut, losing 9 of those games by 2+ runs. Royals are stout at home

Gonna go back to pillaging with wifey out of town, but I saw this number and am like huh? The books clearly don't trust Royals starter Seth Lugo much, and I have to say I can't believe he has been this good at 6-1 with a 1.66 ERA. But until Seth proves us wrong and as long as he's not arrested entering the ballpark, which apparently we can't rule out now, I feel pretty good about this.

This is a big number for Seth Lugo who has been lights out this season and particularly recently having piled up 34 strikeouts in his last four outings. I would argue that Lugo is running red hot/way above expectations in the K department. If we look at the underlying metrics Lugo is averaging 8.7% SwStr% which is lower than his career average of 9.8%. Lugo does have a favorable matchup against the Oakland As, however this number is high enough where I'm comfortable fading Lugo against almost any opponent.