Jason's Pick (1 Live)
Jason's Past Picks
Luka is on a mission and even with Kyrie still too much of a facilitator/passenger and Mavs are clearly the superior team. If hey made a few foul shots in Game 4 series already over. I don't see this experienced backcourt blow a chance to close it out at home. SGA can have all the lay-ups he wants; OKC's starting lineup change kinda backfired, Mavs rotating bigs (Lively and Gafford) are a problem. Jalen Williams 41% from field in series; Dort 31%,, Giddy -5. OKC still missing one piece to win a series like this and losses at home will come back to bite them here. When Mavs beat you at home by 12 with Luka and Kyrie only totaling 43, you're in trouble.
We have been backing Royals with Lugo on bump all season, as the AL can't really seem to figure him out. He gets a faltering A's lineup here and while I think Ross Stripling is generally underrated, Sally got him twice in 7 ABs and A's pen might be running on fumes. Royals are 6-2 in Lugo's 8 starts in April/May, only losses were to teams leading division at the time (BAL and MIL) and all 6 wins by 2 runs or more. KC has +12 RD in his last 4 starts. A's in 2-11 rut, losing 9 of those games by 2+ runs. Royals are stout at home
Similar play to Fri night - Nats are fading and Gore coming off a start where the manager rode him pretty hard against a lineup that is red hot and knows him pretty well. Phils 17-8 at home and 8 of their last 10 wins are by 2 runs or more. Nats lineup lagging (I bet James Wood gets the call to MLB by Memorial Day). Nats have .594 OPS in May (worst in MLB) with a .201/.293/.301 slashline. I don't love Sanchez on the mound but figure he can battle against this group.
The Jays are not good at home (9-10) or vs above .500 teams (13-18) and they are on the brink of another in-season manager firing. Only so many meetings you can call when you never win as many games as you think you will. Lot of pressure on a group that has always cracked under pressure. Rays finding ways to win again (10 of 14), Eflin will battle and Gausman is sporting an ERA around 5. I don't buy the Jays bats. Riding Rays ML again. I smell a sweep
This signing has been the best in ball so far, and the Cubs need a win today and their bullpen stinks. I see them riding Imanaga through 7 today if at all possible and he's done it in two of his last 3 starts. Twice recently he has gone over this mark despite not throwing even 90 pitches and he's been stretched out to over 100 once this month as well. Pirates lineup has had its share of issues.
The Pirates are suddenly a little hot, but have been riding their top three starters and this ain't one of them. I have all kinds of issues with the Cubbies pen, but this starter has been as close to perfect as you get and it might take just one run over 5 innings to get us home. Some of the Cubs big bats have done damage in limited sample vs Bailey Falter. Again, if trends hold we don't need much here
The GOAT might have his best offensive season ever, he loves Dodgers Stadium (7 HR in 87 ABs, and is killing righties (1.259 OPS) and has 4 HRs off Montas in 24 career ABs. Sold.
Ohtani mashes against everybody, but Montas seems to hold a special place in his heart, with 11 career RBI vs him in 24 ABs. Rest of Dodgers lineup is loaded. Won't be able to pitch around him. Let's go
Muncy continues to get slept on and we continue to back him. He's hit tis in two straight games and as 13 driven in during the last 15 games and 28 on the season. Hitting in a prime spot in a dominant lineup, destroys righties (especially mediocre ones) and has 3 hits in 4 career ABs vs this starter. Continues to come up in spots with men on base needing only a sac fly or a well placed ground ball to the right side to score runs. Opposing defenses always playing to take away the big inning. Doesn't need stud ABs to run produce.
Dodgers are pushing for best record in ball, and Reds are in a freefall, 3-12 in their last 15. Yeah they won at Chavez Ravine Thurs night vs an ace, but the Dodgers splits against Montas are monstrous and I don't see the lumber laying low tonight. Dodgers back Paxton well, they rake at home, and they have the best run differential in ball. If Dodgers keep Elly off base even a little, Reds offense fizzles. Bounce back spot for Dodgers
I wouldn't be surprised if the Knicks closed it out here. They are gritty and gutty and have been the better team finding ways to win close games in this series. Of course, the last game in IND was a blowout win for the Pacers, with Brunson scoring just 18 points. I just don't see that happening again, and the Knicks are the more physical team and they are better at the little things. NYK getting 55% of rebounds (big margin) and getting to line 7 times more than Pacers/Game. Pacers are just 17-16-1 ATS as home favorite. I see this coming down to the last few possessions, where Brunson's elite shot-making and ability to draw fouls could be the difference.
Are the Pacers a superior team the likes of which they just can't lost at home? I know they haven't yet this postseason, but given their defensive issues, their streaky shooting, their inability to prevent the Knicks from dominating the offensive boards, Halliburton's erratic play and the fact the best player in this series plays for NYK (Brunson), I could definitely see NY closing this out on the road. The extra day of rest, coming off a win, huge for NYK. I like what McBride and Burks are providing and if Hartenstein rules the boards again (I think he will), too many second-chance points for the Knicks. The lack of a true go-to finisher could be the difference here.
The little engine that could might be running out of steam and the A's are running low on starting pitching and the Royals seem to be catching them at just he right time here. They are 2-10 in their last 12 (since mauling Miami, 20-4) and 8 of those losses have come by 2+ runs. Cole Ragans has come back to earth in a big way, but the A's are a combined 0-17 vs him with 1 walk, so I'm going to lean into that here. The Royals have plenty of warts (need another bat and pen arm for sure) but beat up on lesser teams (19-8 vs sub .500 clubs) and 15-8 at home. A's stellar pen has seen a lot of use
The Bravos are being overshadowed by the Dodgers and Phils but are playing winning ball and beating the teams they are supposed to beat. Max Fried has been great since the Strider injury, I like him to shove vs his former team, and the Padres are 27th in MLB in OBS vs lefties (.615, gulp). SD is 1-7 when Waldron starts and 6 of those 7 losses are by 3 runs or more. He's allowed 13 ER in his last 3 starts, spanning all of 14 1/3 IP. Could be a good weekend for Braves bats to heat up