The Ravens have done a nice job of getting off to fast starts this year, performing particularly well in the second quarter of recent games. I expect Baltimore to control this game early, and go into halftime with a nice lead.

The surprising Broncos have won five of their past six, but have yet to notch a win against a winning team. The Ravens got caught in a rough spot last week in Cleveland, but have a prime get-right opportunity against a Denver club that is a regression candidate.

Lamar is having an MVP3 season and protecting the football ... but this pass rush will be a big problem for a suspect OL (especially the right side) and like the Browns last week, Denver can frustrate the Ravens in man coverage (Lamar is only 16th in passer rating vs man). Lamar is throwing a ton of jump balls across his body and barely getting away with it, but the worm probably turns here. His turnover worthy throws are up big in 2 of the last 3 games. There are going to be tipped balls at the LOS and Lamar is going to be on the run from the pass rush more than he would like. Has gotten away with some to this point.

The 5-3 Broncos have been the beneficiary of a pretty weak schedule thus far. Their easy wins over Bryce Young's Panthers and Spencer Rattler's Saints may have skewed public perception regarding this Denver offense. They scored 16 or less points against the only strong defenses they faced (Steelers, Jets, Chargers). The Ravens have a stout rush defense that can Force Bo Nix into "3rd and long" often. Although this Ravens secondary has been lackluster, they have dealt with injuries, and are far more talented than their current metrics show. Baltimore CB's Nate Wiggins & Marlon Humphrey are expected to play. Last week, Ravens DB Kyle Hamilton dropped a game-sealing interception that ultimately cost them the game. I expect this unit to play with intensity.

Looking at this matchup, the Ravens tend to give rookie QBs all sorts of problems. It's a combination of the rookie vs a stellar Ravens D, and having to keep pace with Lamar Jackson on the other side of the ball. Look for the status quo to remain despite this large spread.

Williams is a skilled pass-catching RB that Broncos QB Bo Nix may be targeting often. I expect Nix to be under duress against a Ravens defense that will be playing with a chip on their shoulder, after getting beat by Jameis Winston's Browns. Williams saw 5+ targets in 3 of the last 4 games, and will be a reliable check-down option. As +9.5 dogs, the Broncos will likely be trailing in this game, which could lead to some "dink and dunk" opportunities when Denver wants to create some quick offense. When Baltimore sends the blitz, look for Nix to find his safest short yardage option in Javonte Williams.

Don't look now, but at this moment, the Broncos are in an AFC playoff spot after winning five of six. We suspect Denver is capable of getting at least one of these games in a tough two-week stretch against the Ravens and Chiefs. Worth noting that the Broncs haven't lost a game by more than seven points this season, as the defense continues to post outstanding numbers, most notably allowing only 17 ppg. The return of CB Pat Surtain II also means Vance Joseph's defense can effectively cut off half of the downfield passing lanes for the opposition, while Bo Nix continues to gain confidence running the offense. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson starts for Baltimore, but was limited in practice this week. Play Broncos

The Broncos have scored 28-plus points in three of their last four games, thanks in large part to Bo Nix's improved play. Denver is facing a Baltimore defense that's hurting up front and might not get back All-Pro cornerback Marlon Humphrey. He was limited in practice all week with a knee injury and is questionable. The Broncos have allowed an NFL-low 4.4 yards per play. While it's fair to question their schedule and the caliber of QBs they've faced, this is at least a better-than-average defense. Look for a final in the neighborhood of 28-20 Baltimore and grab the points.

Bo Nix has one of the best passing matchups in Week 9 vs. the Ravens' pass funnel defense. The Broncos are heavy underdogs so the gamescript fits perfectly for this bet as well.

The Broncos are massive underdogs on Sunday, and this is a spot where I see Denver playing a lot of the game from behind. Baltimore is surprisingly the last ranked pass defense in the NFL, allowing 291.4 passing yards per game. Nix is coming off the best game of his career in Week 8, and I expect another big stat line from him in Week 9.

Always wise to shop around. FanDuel has this at 51.5. Baltimore can't stop the pass whatsoever and Denver probably will be playing some catch up. Sutton has topped this number in four of the past six as he grows comfortable with Bo Nix and had a season highs of 11 targets, eight catches and 100 yards last week. Top Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey might sit again.

Not sure how our system works in terms of loading odds, but this is an alternate total available at BetMGM and I'm gonna take it thank you very much. Honestly don't care about prices if I see something I like. The regular Ravens O/U is 27.5. Lamar Jackson is playing, not that there was much doubt, but 32 points is a big ask even as good as that offense can be considering Denver hasn't allowed more than 26 points yet and that was in Week 1. The SportsLine Discord channel reportedly will go live within two weeks so we can discuss alternate numbers like this on there going forward. Look forward to sharing how I do things rather differently.

Sean Payton knows his quarterback's legs - one the road in a tough environment - are a great way to extend drives. Ravens are 24th in EPA vs QB runs, Nix is averaging 7 rushes for 32 yards on the road and has at least 35 yards rushing in 3 of 4 away from home. Roquan Smith looks heavier and slower than normal, and Ravens pass D is so brutal not sure they can afford to use Kyle Hamilton has a spy. Ravens D has yet to see any volume in QB runs (6 rushes vs them is season high) but that could change bigtime Sunday. Nix didnt need to activate legs vs lowly Panthers last week; 16 carries for 136 yards previous two games.

I don't get this line. Denver has the best D in the NFL, they are hungry and motivated and Bo Nix is playing more than well enough to keep this game close against a team that gets no pressure from the pass rush and gets gutted when it blitzes. Ravens 30th in NFL in opposing passer rating and made even Gardner Minshew look like a star. Denver will commit to the run to keep it close even if it isn't working that well. Broncos suffocate TEs - lifeblood of Ravens passing game - and have corners who can win in man (Lamar Jackson is middling QB vs man for all his MVP stuff). Broncos can beat up Ravens OL. Bad match-up in trenches the Ravens.

The Ravens have major defensive issues and have a mediocre offensive line and DL that lacks bite beyond Nnamdi Madubuike and now is getting hit by injuries. Denver is a monster in the trenches, with an elite pass rush. Bo Nix can manager a game well enough and Sean Payton can manage it with the best of them. Denver is probably best D in NFL defending Ravens staples (21, 22, 12, 13) in the passing game and plays a ton of man; Lamar Jackson is just the 16th-rated QB vs man. Huge trap game potential with Ravens having played rival Browns and host rival Bengals next Thurs. DEN 5-2 ATS, with 4th-best cover margin. Lamar just 9-9-1 ATS. Ravens rarely win the 4th quarter.

This is a massive number, as my model makes the Ravens just a 6-point home favorite. Denver is 8-2 in their last ten road games dating back to last season, which means Baltimore’s home-field edge is somewhat negated. Denver is ranked sixth in opponent passer rating, first in net yards per pass play defense, first in yards per play defense, and third in red-zone defense. Baltimore is ranked 29th in opponent passer rating, 28th in net yards per pass play defense, 25th in yards per play defense, and 19th in red-zone defense. The Ravens are in the middle of a division sandwich with the Bengals on deck next Thursday. Denver has the better special teams as well. (No. 4 vs. No. 25). Take the points.