For all the astonishing numbers Hill has put up this season, he's done a ton of damage against defense-challenged clubs such as the Panthers, Chargers, Broncos and Giants. The Bills and Patriots held him under this threshold and, although the Eagles have a marginal secondary, the attention they will give Hill makes this number a difficult one to clip.

Center Connor Williams and cornerback Xavien Howard are out for the fish. And it's not like it's super cold tonight but has warm-weather Tua Tagovailoa ever won a outdoor game below 50 degrees? I'm sure he has at this point but you get my drift. Julio Jones will debut for the Eagles. Simply think they are capable of scoring as well as Miami but that the Philly defense has a higher "ceiling" than that of the Dolphins.

DeVonta Smith has not been efficient the past two weeks, catching just six of 16 targets. On the bright side, for this prop, is the fact that he's been running more vertical routes. With Dolphins top corner Xavien Howard (groin) inactive, Smith should get loose for at least one big play.

I'm happy to take DeVonta Smith here in a likely shootout, especially at a line that is depressed due to some injury concerns and some major inefficiency over the last few games. That inefficiency was largely due to a bad case of the drops with DeVonta and I don't expect that to continue. He's averaging over 8 targets per game over his last three games and that should get him there.

Tonight should be one of if not the best prime time football game of the season. With two explosive offenses it’s a great opportunity for complimentary players to over achieve. With the Dolphins explosive ground game and passing attack there should be room for Berrios to be involved on his low yardage prop. Play his over.

We're getting a hefty discount DeVonta Smith who should be heavily featured in a game with a 51.5 point total. Look for Smith to make up for some of the drops he had last week and get behind a depleted Miami secondary.

We are starting to wonder about "shootouts" and the Birds as the offense grinded to a halt last week at MetLife as Jalen Hurts became so spooked he tossed ghastly pick inside of 2 minutes that set up the J-Men for winning TD. With opposing defenses guarding against getting beaten deep with their lives, Hurts has been forced to go with mostly short and intermediate throws while hoping AJ Brown or DeVonta Smith can pick up lots of yardage after the catch. The Dolphins might not have the Jets' defense, but Miami does have more than enough offense with Tua in complete harmony with his weaponry.

How in the world has this total gone down. I bet this last week before Week 6 on Sunday and went over 52.5. We have two of the best offensive teams in the NFL going head to head. Miami is #1 in points and yards per play. The Eagles have been conservative in with 2nd half leads lowering their stats but don't be fooled this is still a great offense. Philly's defense ranks 12th in yards per play allowed and Miami is 19th. The Dolphins have gone over the total in three of their last four games. My model has this total 64.

No team has been more impressive so far this season than the Dolphins, but their five wins came over teams that are a combined 5-24. The one team currently above .500 that they faced beat them. The Eagles have somewhat sleepwalked to a 5-1 start, but coming off their first loss and facing a serious threat at home in prime time, look for Philly to wake up and look more like last season. Lay the points.

Lane Johnson is good to go, which should help D'Andre Swift's production. Swift has dominated RB carries in this backfield, getting a 68 percent share the past four games, and now gets to face a Miami defense that ranks 30th in rushing success rate allowed. Through six games, Philly has faced the NFL's toughest slate of opposing rush defenses (again, by success rate). So this is the best matchup Swift has had all year.

A "squeaky wheel" performance appears destined for Smith, who hasn't found the end zone week 2 and has topped 100 yards just once this season. The Eagles tried last week as Smith had a season-high 11 targets but just 5 catches and 44 meager yards to show for them. In a game that should have plenty of offense, this is a value price on for a key piece of the offense.

This has the potential to be a high-scoring game between two of the best offenses in the league. That could force the Eagles to throw a lot to try and keep up with the Dolphins. A.J. Brown already comes into this matchup on a hot streak, recording at least 127 receiving yards in each of the last four games. He has been targeted at least eight times in all but one game this season and he is averaging 11.2 yards per target. With plenty of passes likely coming his way, the over is the way to go.

I absolutely love the Eagles in this spot, especially coming off a loss last week to the Jets. I expect Jalen Hurts and his offensive weapons to be firing on all cylinders against a beatable Miami defense. On the other side, Jalen Carter and Darius Slay return to help slow down Miami's awesome unit. Similar to Dolphins-Bills in Week 4, I expect Philly to pull away in the second half with the help of several consecutive stops on defense. Eagles 37, Dolphins 24.

The Eagles appeared to hit cruise control after taking a 14-3 last week against the Jets and, four turnovers later, paid the ultimate price in a 20-14 loss to the stubborn New York squad. That should be a wake-up call for this showcase opportunity against a Dolphins club that fell behind 14 to lowly Carolina last week before getting its act together. The fun but finesse Phins have a bottom-10 rushing defense and are in a bad spot against an Eagles club that will be seeking a statement victory.

We saw Mostert catch three passes in a blowout win over Carolina last week. That was his third game in his past four with at least three receptions, including the Dolphins’ loss at Buffalo when he was splitting reps with De’Von Achane in a bad game script. The Eagles run defense is tough, but it’s not as tough against RBs in the passing game. They’ve allowed an 83.3% catch rate to rushers, which is huge. Four opponents have fielded a running back with at least three grabs against the Eagles this season, and the Dolphins deserve credit for their offensive creativity which should in turn lead to some chances for Mostert to contribute in passing situations.

The Dolphins bring an offense that's not just No. 1 in yards per play, but further ahead of No. 2 than No. 2 is ahead of No. 32. Despite that incredible stat, I'm going to back the Eagles here after they received a glowing final injury report on Friday with essentially all the key unknowns cleared to play. Philly's loss last week can be directly attributed to a minus-4 turnover margin that is unlikely to be repeated, as Miami's defense has been pretty pedestrian, even more so against better units like the Bills and Chargers. The Eagles front does just enough to make Tua Tagovailoa uncomfortable to get the win and cover here.

51 the highest of the week but I still like this Over. Miami has the best offense in football averaging 498.7 yards per game and the Eagles are desperate for a bounce back from last week that saw Jalen Hurts throw for only 1 TD pass and 3 interceptions. The Eagles banged up Secondary coupled with Miami's 26th ranked pass defense should help facilitate a high scoring affair. Five of Miami's past six road games have gone over the total, while the Over is 2-0 at Lincoln Financial Field this season.

Eagles just lost to the lowly Jets and while normally I’d say they are primed for a bounce back, I don't believe that is the case this week... Eagles Secondary is banged up and even if they get Darius Slay back, I give the edge to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in those head to head matchups. Additionally, I'm not sure there is any stopping Raheem Mostert at this point. Obviously, you gotta watch the Lane Johnson injury closely, but even if he does play, he likely will not be a 100% with that ankle sprain, which is a massive hit to Philly's O-Line. Dolphins have swam just fine on the road, 2-1 SU and ATS... let's make is 3-1.

There are a slew of key injuries to monitor in this matchup, but none more so than Dolphins center Connor Williams. He has a groin injury and did not practice Wednesday. When he missed the Week 4 game in Buffalo, Liam Eichenberg stepped in and got embarrassed, allowing two sacks and five pressures and committing a penalty. Eagles defensive anchor Jalen Carter is trending toward playing. Besides Philly's advantages on both lines of scrimmage, the Eagles get a reprieve after facing a brutal schedule of defenses.Tua Tagovailoa is money at home (15-5 ATS) but under .500 against the number on the road.