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McCaffrey popped for 119 yards on just 14 carries last week against Tampa Bay, while the leaky Seattle run defense yielded 223 yards to Carolina. But his should be a tough spot for the versatile RB to reach the Over in rushing yards. The Seahawks should play with a sense of desperation and they will likely aim to take away McCaffrey and friends on early downs and force banged-up rookie QB Brock Purdy into long down-and-distance situations. Moreover, although he should still see plenty of work in the passing game, the 49ers might look to limit McCaffrey's rushing touches in an effort to keep him healthy as the postseason approaches.
Let me get this straight: A seventh-round Mr. Irrelevant rookie quarterback with an oblique injury (Brock Purdy) is playing his first road game on a short week, missing by far his best receiver (Deebo Samuel) and his team is a 3.5-point favorite? Yes, the Niners are spectacular on defense, but they also don't really "have" to win this game (would clinch division title if they do) with a two-game edge in the NFC West over the Seahawks, who really need it and will get back stud rookie RB Kenneth Walker III from injury. The hook may well matter.
The 49ers head into Seattle with a banged-up rookie QB under center and their best receiver out. The Seahawks defense is particularly awful against the run, so this matchup is shaping up for San Francisco to do a lot of running the football. Mason iced away victories the last two weeks, topping 50 yards in each game, and his workload in the ground game has gone up consistently the last four weeks. I believe he's going to be a bigger part of the gameplan from the jump, and as long as he doesn't drop back down to receiving just 4-5 carries, he should sail over this total. I think he's going to post a season-best mark here, so this is going to remain good value through kickoff.
George Kittle has had success against the Seahawks. He has gone over this number in seven straight games vs the Seahawks averaging 76.4 rec YPG. Even though Kittle has stayed under this number in three straight games, he should see an increase in targets with Deebo Samuel out.
Brandon Aiyuk has gone over this number in seven of the last nine games. Star wide receiver Deebo Samuel is out with a leg injury. In the one game that Samuel missed this season, Aiyuk had 81 rec yards. Aiyuk has gone over this number in three of his four career games vs the Seahawks, including week 2 this season. Aiyuk should get a lot of looks and go over this number.
C-Mac is averaging 49 receiving yards per game this season and has racked up 13 targets since Brock Purdy took over as the starting QB in San Francisco. He will face a Seattle defense that has surrendered the third-most receiving yards to opposing RBs this season. With Deebo Samuel already ruled out for this game, I expect Purdy to continue to lean on McCaffrey and pepper the All-Pro with plenty of targets. I'd play this prop up to 38.5 yards.
The Seahawks give up 44.5 receiving yards per game (sixth-most) to opposing running backs. With Deebo Samuel (ankle/knee) out, other weapons like McCaffrey should get more work. And with this being Brock Purdy's first road start, I look for him to lean on quick throws to McCaffrey to move the chains. Go Over 35.5 receiving yards at -123.
Yes, we can now pick NFL props on the site! I won't do a ton of them but have to at least be among the first. No Deebo Samuel for San Francisco for a few weeks, and Brandon Aiyuk, already having a career season, should benefit the most. Since Brock Purdy has taken over under center, Aiyuk leads the starting receivers in target share (22.2%) and catches of at least 20 yards (three). He had five catches for 63 yards in the first meeting with Seattle when Samuel was healthy. The SL Model has Aiyuk with 59 yards in this one.
The feel-good Seahawks story has predictably reversed course. They have lost three of their last four, with all the defeats at home, with the lone win in that stretch a squeaker over the downtrodden Rams. Even so, Seattle should be poised to compete to the wire Thursday against a 49ers club that has won six straight. They have covered five of those, but will be without versatile playmaker Deebo Samuel and rookie backup quarterback Brock Purdy, who also is banged up, will likely make his first road start. The key number plus the hook provides some value on the home underdog.
The 49ers have one of the best defenses in the league, but they allow plenty of volume to opposing receivers, giving up the seventh-most yards to the position in the league. Furthermore, their depth will be tested on Thursday with Dontae Johnson (torn ACL) and Samuel Womack (concussion) out, plus Ambry Thomas dealing with an ankle injury. Goodwin has been a reliable secondary option for Geno Smith as of late, reaching 26 yards in six of his last seven appearances, and his role as a deep threat could allow him to go over this total on just one catch. One note: This is the first prop posted in our system, so bear with us as we test to make sure it's working properly.
The 49ers absolutely dominated the Bucs with a seventh-round rookie QB, but he picked up multiple injuries in the game and likely will be less than 100% for this short-week matchup. This is also Brock Purdy's first road test, and with Deebo Samuel out, I'm not sure we can just chalk up another awful game from the Seattle D in this spot. The Seahawks are coming off a bad loss but have scored 24-plus in six of their last seven games, and I think they throw the kitchen sink at San Francisco in this last attempt to stay in the divisional race. The lookahead was only 49ers -1 and with the injury issues on offense, I think it belongs back below 3.