You've heard that "defense wins championships" for years, and that's certainly true. Teams like the 49ers are the paradigm of what it takes to win games like this. But there's an X factor in Super Bowl LIV that cannot be accounted for in that simple phrase, and his name is Patrick Mahomes. The 2018 NFL MVP is a true difference maker, and no matter how well San Francisco prepares for Kansas City's offense, a veteran coach like Andy Reid and other-worldly playmaker like Mahomes should be able to adjust. The Chiefs have been my eventual NFL champions since they came back from 24 down to beat the Texans ... by 20. The 49ers are good, but KC's offense is a whole 'nother level than ones they have faced this season.

Truth be told, I'd like to see Andy Reid get his ring and the Chiefs earn their first title in 50 years, but this isn't a good matchup. Yes, the Chiefs’ run defense has improved, and they slowed Derrick Henry two weeks ago. I just don’t think that will continue. The Niners’ run game has been unstoppable when excellent blockers Kyle Juszczyk and George Kittle are healthy (Raheem Mostert even finished 10 spots higher than Henry in rushing DVOA). The 49ers should be able to get after Patrick Mahomes, and in this heavyweight battle, I’ll take the team with the better D.

This is obviously a very tough call, given San Fran's strong defensive front and dominant postseason form. But I keep coming back to one player: Chris Jones. He played 28 snaps in the AFC title game, and the Chiefs generated three sacks and seven QB pressures while he was on the field. Now fully recovered from his calf injury, Jones is expected to play nearly every snap Sunday. The 49ers were the best in the NFL at limiting deep throws this season, but they haven't faced an offense with this kind of speed. And San Fran plays zone coverage nearly 80 percent of the time. Patrick Mahomes dissects zone defenses. Look for Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman and/or Sammy Watkins to break a big play or two, and for Tyrann Mathieu to make key defensive plays in a Chiefs' win.

San Francisco's defense has been lights-out this year. But the combination of Patrick Mahomes, those talented Kansas City wideouts and two weeks to prepare will put pressure on a 49ers secondary that will have its head-spinning. As a result, the 49ers offense will try to slow things down and limit possessions -- to no avail. I'm on Kansas City.

We have a Super Bowl matchup between a great offense (KC) vs a great defense (SF). In matchups like this, you tend to side with the team that has the better defense. However, the Chiefs' offense is something that's out of a video game, as they continue to apply pressure on a defense. The 49ers' offense is no slouch, either, they just go about their business a different way -- via the run game. With the Chiefs' improved defense, and the unknown of Jimmy Garoppolo's passing, I like the Chiefs in this one.

This number is too high. San Francisco will be able to run the ball, which will eat the clock. The Chiefs are great offensively but it's not going to be easy against this 49ers' defense. Go Under.

The 49ers represent the worst possible matchup for the Chiefs. Their defense can get pressure on Patrick Mahomes with their elite front four, leaving seven men in coverage to help take away deep shots, and it's hard to see a 300-yard day from the talented QB as a result. On the other side of the ball, the 49ers can dominate on the ground, making things difficult for what's been a mediocre rush defense all year with presnap motion that helps to open holes on the second level. Even if Mahomes proves too tough to slow down considerably, Jimmy Garoppolo showed against the Saints and twice against the Cardinals he's capable of coming through in a shootout. It's a tough call, but I believe 49ers win.

We've seen this total rise since the opener as people back the explosive Chiefs offense, but let's give some credit to a great 49ers defense that ranked first in net yards per pass attempt in the regular season and then dominated the Vikings and Packers on the way to the Super Bowl. Their presence in this game makes me think we're not going to see as many points as people believe, as San Francisco grinds out drives on offense and wins the chess game against Patrick Mahomes often enough to keep this one from hitting 55.

The game plan for San Francisco is simple -- deflate the football. As was the case in the NFC Championship Game, the 49ers will try to run as much as possible to keep Patrick Mahomes and Co. off the field. Will it result in a win? That's not the point here. Possessions will be more limited than some expect and the Under will hit.

This game reminds me a lot of Super Bowl XXV. Buffalo had the highest-scoring team in the league when Bill Belichick and Bill Parcells came up with a defense Jim Kelly couldn't figure out. All the Giants did in that 20-19 win was run the ball with O.J. Anderson. Patrick Mahomes is going to see a defense he's never seen before. There is so much speed on that 49ers defense. Kansas City won't be able to stop San Francisco's run game. The 49ers will be able to eat up the clock. This field is not a fast track. Andy Reid is going to be cautious, the Chiefs will get off the blocks slow, they always do. Kyle Shanahan screwed up in the Super Bowl when he was Atlanta's offensive coordinator. He won't screw up this time.

Patrick Mahomes drops back to pass a lot, but it's not often that he's under pressure. This is good for the Chiefs because, while Mahomes is amazing, like most QBs, he's not nearly as effective when pressured. Well, there aren't many defenses in the NFL better at pressuring the QB than San Francisco, and I expect Mahomes will struggle a lot more in the Super Bowl than we're accustomed to seeing. Give me the 49ers' defense and a rushing attack that should be able to exploit the Chiefs' defense.

As impressive as the 49ers were in the conference finals, Kansas City was more so. Green Bay entered as an underwhelming No. 2 seed in the NFC, while Tennessee had outplayed its No. 6 AFC status. The Chiefs swarmed to peerless Titans RB Derrick Henry and achieved the impossible -- slowing him down. They can take a page from that playbook against run-oriented San Fran. Though the Niners did not need to throw, can an offense that attempted eight passes (against the Packers) be trusted? Meanwhile, the Chiefs can lay claim to the most dangerous offense ever -- really, a dozen TDs in two playoff games? -- and the QB matchup is not a close call. This is K.C. coach Andy Reid’s time to complete his eventual case for Hall of Fame recognition.

The 49ers have a great defense, but they haven't played an offense like the one they're about to face in Super Bowl 54. On the other side of the ball, Kansas City's run defense is far better now than it was over the first 10 weeks. I'm projecting K.C. to score in the high 20s and prevail in an entertaining Super Bowl.