A weakness for the Dallas Mavericks in the postseason has been their performances in game ones. They lost decisively by twelve points in both game ones to the Oklahoma City Thunder and LA Clippers. The stage is different now and I believe they will be ready for the road challenge against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Take the value on the underdog with the Timberwolves coming off a series win over the defending NBA champions.

The Wolves trailed have trailed seven of their 11 playoff games at the half, including five of the seven against Denver. The defense takes it toll as time goes on in the second half, and Anthony Edwards has been, at times, a little passive as a scorer in the early going as he figures out the way he's being covered. I like Dallas to win the first half, but I'll take the points to feel even safer.

NAW is getting up about six 3s per game in the playoffs and he's converting at basically a one-out-of-three clip. The Mavericks are definitely going to let him shoot. I wouldn't be surprised to see him attempt seven or eight 3s in Game 1, and in that case I like him, at plus value, to convert on a couple.

The Minnesota Timberwolves had an emotional comeback against the Nuggets at high altitude in game seven. Although Minnesota won 3 out of 4 games against Dallas this season, it's important to note that all four games were played before the trade deadline, after which Dallas significantly improved their roster. Minnesota is ranked 8th in average height, while Dallas is close behind at 13th. I like the Mavericks plus the points in game one!

This is too dramatic. Luka Doncic had a hard time eclipsing this early against OKC as he nursed an injury. But he hit this over in the last 2 games of the series and comes into this game with three days of rest. He's had 10+ rebounds in his last five games and should be good for at least 8 assists with the ball in his hand majority of the game. While the shooting efficiency may not be there against this tough Minnesota defense, the sheer volume should get him over this number. Doncic is 72% to this over this season, and 71% on the road alone. Let's not look too deeply into one tough series against OKC.

The Wolves earned this home court, they were superior in the regular season and they have faced a far tougher path in the playoffs. Neither of these clubs has been a consistently fast starter in the postseason but MIN will feed off the crowd early, they blew out the defending champs int he first half last time at home and Kyrie is so passive in the first half that I like the Wolves in this spot. Experience might matter more late in the game, and MIN is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite, but I am buying into the energy early. DAL -1.3 in first half this postseason. Home court and fast starts early and late in a series.

How will the young Timberwolves respond to that epic comeback win in Denver on Sunday (still shaking my head)? I think there might be a small letdown here, and it would only be natural after knocking off the champs. The Mavs, meanwhile, are in this round for the second time in three years and on an extra day of rest if that matters. The only game in the RS series between these two where Luka and Kyrie were both active for Dallas, the Mavs won. Also keep in mind the Wolves never saw Dallas after trading for Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington.

PJ Washington had a massive series against the OKC and averaged just under 18 PPG, in addition to 3.8 three pointers on 47% shooting from the perimeter. To put those numbers into perspective, Washington averaged 1.8 threes per game on 31% 3PT FG% in the regular season. Needless to say, it is going to be extremely difficult for him to sustain his scoring, particularly from deep, against the NBA's top overall defense. The Wolves rank in the top three in virtually every relevant defensive three point category as well. This is going to be a much tougher series for Washington, who I expect to come back down to earth.

Drawing any conclusions from the regular-season meetings between these two is about as relevant as the what the Trailblazers or Jazz did vs. either. It's been nearly four months since the last Dallas-Minnesota game, and the Mavs lineup in particular looks far different than it did on January 31, when among others, Luka and Kyrie didn't feature (in fact, Kyrie was only on the floor for one of the four regular-season meetings...the one Dallas won, by the way). Subsequent additions of Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington filled necessary roles for Jason Kidd, and the Mavs enter this series having won and covered four of their last five on the road in the playoffs. Play Mavs

I have to figure that Luka and Kyrie are going to be selling out defensively to try to contain some other people in this backcourt. Conley is the primary facilitator but also a calming presence who knows when it's time to take a momentum-changing shot. Guarding his perimeter jumper probably not high on the list of objectives, especially when MIN in its big rotation. He was +11.5 vs MIN in regular season and averaged 4 3PtA/G and a few days off undoubtedly did wonders for his body. This isn't a stretch for him, he shot 53% from 3 vs DAL in 4 games, he's over this in 5 of last 8 and averaged 3/G during playoff push in April.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker struggled in the Timberwolves epic seven game series against the Nuggets. Denver made NAW very uncomfortable by pressuring him and constantly testing his handle and Alexander-Walker had trouble adjusting. However, I believe he will find more success against Dallas and his perimeter shooting will be key. Dallas likes to pack the paint and aggressively close out on perimeter shot attempts. Not only is NAW an elite catch and shoot player, but he possesses a patented catch and side step move that he often relies on. I believe NAW is likely to get up 5-6 threes in this game and like his chances of making at least two in the process.

Take the first half under here. Dallas plays slow, and Minnesota plays great D. This is a wonderful spot.

Dereck Lively has not hit this number yet against Minnesota this season. However, he’s seen increased role in the playoffs. Lively has had seven rebounds and assists, or more, in eight of the last 12 playoff games. He’s averaging 22 minutes in the playoffs and with a low game total, the first game of the series could be a defensive battle with plenty of opportunities for Lively.