Browns vs. Rams NFL Week 13 odds, props: Joe Flacco to start at quarterback for Cleveland; Defensive Player of the Year favorite Myles Garrett should play

It has been very rare this season for a player in the NFL's concussion protocol to play the same week, and because Cleveland Browns rookie starting quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is still in the protocol as of Friday morning, 38-year-old former Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco is on track to start Sunday's game at the Los Angeles Rams. In addition, Defensive Player of the Year candidate Myles Garrett is also likely to go despite a shoulder injury. The Browns were +5 on the SportsLine consensus but are now +3.5.

Frankly, it speaks to the state of quarterbacking in the NFL right now – just ask Tom Brady – that Flacco has to start for a team in a playoff race. The former Raven has been past his prime for about six years. He was signed off the street last week to the team's practice squad. Most recently, he started four games with the Jets in 2022 and New York went 1-3. Since starting all 16 games for Baltimore in 2017, he is 7-19 with a stint in Denver also mixed in.

Cleveland (7-4) has already used Thompson-Robinson, Deshaun Watson (out for season) and PJ Walker under center this year. Even though Walker made two starts and helped lead an upset of San Francisco, the Browns opted to move Flacco into the No. 2 role this week above the former XFL QB. They would be the first team with four different starting quarterbacks in 2023 and only the fourth team in the last 10 seasons with four different QBs through 12 games. Cleveland would be the first team with a winning record and four different starting QBs through 12 games since the 1988 Browns.

Not counting the 1987 strike season, just one team since 1970 had four different starting quarterbacks log a win through 12 team games, the 1998 New Orleans Saints. Under coach Mike Ditka, that club finished 6-10 with Kerry Collins starting seven games, Billy Joe Tolliver four, Danny Wuerffel (!) four and Billy Joe Hobert one.

The Browns are sitting sixth in the AFC, which is frankly a minor miracle. Coach Kevin Stefanski's team is -170 to reach the postseason. Since 1950, only seven teams have made the playoffs in a year where they started at least four different QBs. 

Rather ironically, Flacco's last win in the NFL came against the Browns in Week 2 of last season. You may remember that miracle ending as Flacco's Jets trailed 24-17 with under three minutes left. Cleveland had first-and-10 at the Jets' 12 with 1:55 to go and New York was out of timeouts. All Browns running back Nick Chubb had to do was basically fall down on his carry and the game was over, but he scored and then the PAT was missed for a 30-17 lead. Flacco quickly threw a 66-yard TD pass to Corey Davis, the Jets recovered the onside kick and then Flacco hit Garrett Wilson on a 15-yard TD pass with 22 seconds to go. The PAT was the winner.

I personally wagered the Rams early this week -- unfortunately at a higher number -- because it sure looked like Garrett would miss at least one game after he heard a pop in his shoulder in last Sunday's 29-12 loss in Denver. The former No. 1 overall pick was definitely concerned, but his MRI was clear and he's expected to play. Garrett is tied for third in the league with 13 sacks and is the +160 favorite at DraftKings to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year. That Garrett-led defense is allowing just 247.9 yards per game, the fewest in the league and on pace to be the fewest in a season since the Super Bowl-winning 2008 Steelers.

It's unclear if this spread dropped because Garrett will play or because of Flacco, who even at his age is an upgrade, at least passing-wise, on Thompson-Robinson. While he's an excellent runner, Thompson-Robinson is completing just 53.2% of his passes with one TD and four picks for an NFL-worst rating of 50.6. 

Flacco, incidentally, is +3000 to throw for the most yards of any QB on Sunday. Can't say I recommend that wager. There are no individual props up yet for him. The Browns are 3-0 this season after a loss and Stefanski is 19-7 in his career following a loss, the third-best record by an NFL  head coach since 1970 (minimum 20 games).

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