2024 NFL Playoffs Chiefs vs. Dolphins odds, line: Advanced computer model reveals picks for Saturday's AFC Wild Card game
SportsLine's projection model, which is on a 183-129 run on top-rated NFL picks, has generated selections for the Super Wild Card Weekend playoff game between Kansas City and Miami
The third-seeded Kansas City Chiefs will begin their quest to become the first repeat champion in nearly two decades when they host the sixth-seeded Miami Dolphins in a 2024 NFL Super Wild Card Weekend game on Saturday. Kansas City (11-6) won its second Super Bowl championship in four years last season and will try to become the first team since the New England Patriots (2003-04) to capture back-to-back titles. Miami (11-6), which hasn't won the Super Bowl since the 1973 campaign, is seeking its first playoff victory since defeating Indianapolis in 2000.
Kickoff at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a 4.5-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Dolphins odds while the over/under for total points scored is 43.5. Before you make any Dolphins vs. Chiefs picks or NFL playoff predictions, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2024 NFL playoffs on an incredible 183-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 37-21 roll on top-rated picks since Week 7 of last season and has nailed seven straight top-rated picks entering the 2024 NFL playoffs.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
The model knows many of Kansas City's starters will be well-rested. With the team's eighth straight AFC West title and the third seed in the conference already locked up, they sat out the team's 13-12 victory at the Los Angeles Chargers in the regular-season finale. Patrick Mahomes, who was sixth in the NFL with 4,183 passing yards and eighth with 27 touchdown tosses, is looking to notch his 11th career postseason victory and pull even with Aaron Rodgers for most among active quarterbacks.
The model also knows Miami could get back running back Raheem Mostert (knee/ankle), who missed the 21-14 loss to Buffalo in the season finale but still led the NFL with 18 touchdown runs and was 10th with 1,012 rushing yards, both career-highs. Wideout Tyreek Hill will make his first appearance in Kansas City since being traded by the Chiefs in March 2022 after leading the league with 1,799 receiving yards and 13 TD catches this season.
Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Dolphins. We can tell you the model is leaning Under the total, and it also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50% of simulations! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any NFL picks.
So who wins Chiefs vs. Dolphins on Saturday? And which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? ... Join SportsLine now to see which side of the Dolphins vs. Chiefs spread to back, all from the model on an incredible 183-129 run!