Motivational spots have always been a part of sports handicapping, but they are a much more significant factor in college sports than the pros.

Although certain letdown or fatigue spots can be identified in professional sports, the athletes are primarily driven by their massive paychecks and any other factors pale in comparison. The compensation gap has become a blurred line, now that NIL and other sponsorship deals are legal and many college athletes, at least at the highest levels, are receiving real compensation in exchange for their play.

Even so, emotional flat spots and natural rivalries still play a much bigger role in college athletics than in their professional counterparts. In fact, identifying clubs that are a longshot to repeat peak performances due to logistical circumstances is an effective tool to weekly handicapping in college football.

In other words, the programs that had the most significant performance for their profile the previous week, such as a win as an underdog over a rival, make for high-percentage fades the following week.

Here are a couple examples from the 2023 season: In Week 2, Texas (+7.5) upset Alabama 34-24 on the road, a breakthrough victory that would serve as the catalyst to a College Football Playoff appearance. However, the following week, the Longhorns (-31) slept walk through the first half against Wyoming and led just 10-7 at the break before pulling away with a 31-10 victory. Even so, the underdog Cowboys covered easily.

Similarly, Washington (-3) exorcised some demons against rival Oregon with a 36-33 win that would catapult the Huskies to a Pac-12 title and eventual appearance in the national championship game. However, the following week against Arizona State, Washington was a four-touchdown favorite but nearly saw its breakout season turn into disaster. The Huskies needed a 12-0 fourth quarter to prevail 15-7, and the ATS win for the massive underdog was never in doubt.

It's worth noting there are occasional exceptions. In Week 8 of last year, Kansas (+10.5) cemented its breakout season with a 38-33 signature victory over Oklahoma as a double-digit home underdog. The following week, the Jayhawks (+2.5) overcame a sluggish start to topple Iowa State 28-21 on the road.

Still, the projected letdown spot following a breakthrough performance has proven to be a consistently advantageous angle for college football handicapping. Following the handful of Week 0 games last week, below is one play that fits the criteria. 

Which college football team is in a prime fade spot in Week 1 of the college football season? Join SportsLine right now to see Josh Nagel's top situational plays and betting strategy, all from a proven expert!