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USA vs. Panama Gold Cup semifinal soccer odds, trends: Heavy action on Over total 2.5 goals, Jesus Ferreira to score

The USA faces Panama in the Gold Cup semifinals tonight.

Matt Severance

Many in the sports world consider the day after MLB's All-Star Game (today) to be the worst of the year from a betting perspective. With very little live competition, tonight's United States vs. Panama Gold Cup soccer men's semifinal matchup in San Diego is expected to draw huge action at sportsbooks. Over 2.5 goals in regulation time is taking a big lean at BetMGM, as is American Jesus Ferreira to score a goal. Click here for expert picks.

The Americans are 3-1-0 in this competition, which started on June 24 with a 1-1 draw vs. Jamaica. That was followed by a 6-0 rout of St. Kitts and Nevis on June 28, another 6-0 blowout of Trinidad and Tobago on July 2, and then a 3-2 win over Canada in penalty kicks (the match was a 1-1 draw after regulation and 2-2 following 30 minutes of extra time) this past Sunday to reach the semifinals.

The Canada match marked the seventh time that the USMNT had gone to a penalty shootout in official competition, advancing on five occasions. It was the team's first shootout win since the 2005 Gold Cup Final. The USA aims to reach a record 13th Gold Cup Final to tie Mexico with an eighth championship. Canada is the only other country to win it (2000).

At BetMGM, the USA opened as a -225 favorite vs. Panama but is down to -165, with 67% of the bets and 59% of the money coming in on the Americans. A draw at +270 is taking 8% of the bets and 3% of the money. On the total of 2.5, goals, a whopping 82% of the action is on the Over at +105.  

The 22-year-old Ferreira, who plays domestically for MLS side FC Dallas leads the USA with six goals in the tournament and had a hat trick in both 6-0 wins. Ferreira scored in the shootout for the Americans vs. Canada, but that's not an official goal.

Panama also has three wins and a draw in this event and comes off a 4-0 rout of Qatar in the quarterfinals. Ismael Diaz had a hat trick in that one and leads the club with four goals in the tournament. His country is in the Gold Cup semis for the fifth time.

Panama is the USMNT's most frequent opponent at the Gold Cup, as tonight will be their 12th meeting at the tournament. The USA has 6-1-4 record all-time vs. Panama at this event and is 17-2-6 across all competitions. The countries last met in the Gold Cup in 2019 and in 2022 World Cup qualifying play, with the United States prevailing 5-1 on March 27, 2022 in Orlando. Ferreira had a goal and Christian Pulisic notched a hat trick.

If the teams are tied tonight at the end of regulation, two 15-minute periods of extra time will be played. If the score is still tied, the game will go to penalty kicks. To advance, the USA is -270 and Panama +210.

The other semifinal follows at 10 p.m. ET from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, site of Super Bowl 58, with Mexico a -310 favorite against Jamaica (+235). The final is Sunday night at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. 

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