Tampa Bay Buccaneers schedule 2020 -- NFL betting analysis
The Buccaneers will be one of the NFL's most fascinating teams thanks to the additions of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Here's a betting analysis of the Bucs' 2020 schedule:
Did any team have a better NFL offseason than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Not only did they lure six-time Super Bowl champion and three-time league MVP Tom Brady in free agency from New England but also got Rob Gronkowski out of retirement and signed former NFL rushing champion LeSean McCoy. This offense is stacked!
Entering this season, the most prime-time games the Bucs had ever played in a season was three in 2003. This year, they have five -- and could add one or two more potentially flexed into Sunday night later in the season. Interestingly, those five games are over just a seven-week span. If there are two "lulls" in the schedule, it would be Weeks 2-5 and 15-17 as Tampa Bay doesn't face a 2019 postseason team in any of those.
The Bucs have one stretch where they won't have to leave home for a month, starting Week 11 vs. the Chargers and through Week 14 vs. the Vikings -- Tampa gets its bye Week 13. Tampa Bay may not play in a cold-weather outdoor game at all, with the only shot being Week 8 at the Giants.
At age 43 (in August), TB12 will be asked to end the NFC's longest playoff drought as the Bucs haven't been to the postseason since 2007. Brady will have his favorite target too, as the Bucs traded for ex-Patriots All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski, who had been retired, in a late-April shocker.
Brady has been a fabulous quarterback to bet on since taking over as Patriots starter early in the 2001 season: He is 167-109-8 against the spread in the regular season, a 60.5 cover percentage. As a home underdog, Brady was a sterling 9-2 ATS with the Pats. The Bucs in theory could be home dogs three times this season vs. the Saints, Packers and Chiefs. Maybe vs. the Vikings too.
Amazingly since 2003, the Patriots never had a four-game ATS losing streak in a single season. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay had a six-game ATS losing streak in 2019 from Weeks 5-11.
Of course, Super Bowl 55 is in Tampa as the Bucs look to become the first team to ever play the big game in their own stadium.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS BETTING PROFILE
2019 record: 7-9 (third, NFC South)
2019 against the spread: 5-9-2
2019 ATS margin: +1.4
2019 Over-Under: 12-4 (NFL's top Over team)
2020 strength of schedule: Tied for 16th-toughest; Bucs' opponents combined for a .502 winning percentage last year (128-127-1).
WILLIAM HILL 2020 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS FUTURES ODDS
Win total: 9.5 (Over -140 favorite)
Win total vs. Patriots: Bucs -0.5 (-150), Pats +0.5 (+130)
To make playoffs: Yes -280, no +230
Division: +140 to win NFC South
Conference: +600 to win NFC
Super Bowl 55: +1200 to win second Super Bowl in franchise history (XXXVII)
NFL MVP: Tom Brady +1600, Mike Evans +20000, Chris Godwin +25000
Defensive Player of the Year: Shaquil Barrett +4000
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Antoine Winfield Jr. +5000
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ke'Shawn Vaughn +2200
Comeback Player of the Year: Rob Gronkowski +300 favorite
Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians +1200
SportsLine Model's projection: 8.7 wins (Under)
TAMPA BAY BUCS GAME-BY-GAME BETTING TRENDS
Week 1 at New Orleans, 4:25 PM ET: The Bucs were at least 7-point dogs in five of their past seven visits to the Big Easy (3-4 ATS) but opened at +4.5 for this one.
Week 2 vs. Carolina, 1 PM ET: Brady's home debut. Tampa has never covered back-to-back home meetings in this series.
Week 3 at Denver, 4:25 PM ET: As away underdogs, the Bucs were solid 3-3 ATS last year. They haven't been to Denver since 2012.
Week 4 vs. LA Chargers, 1 PM ET: Tampa was 3-5-2 ATS last season in non-division games.
Week 5 at Chicago, 8:20 PM ET (Thursday): Tampa got trounced in Chicago in the last meeting (2018) and is 2-4 ATS in the past six matchups.
Week 6 vs. Green Bay, 4:25 PM ET: Tampa is 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in the past three meetings but hasn't hosted the Pack since 2014.
Week 7 at Las Vegas, 8:20 PM ET: This will be Tampa's first game against former coach Jon Gruden. The Bucs covered once in four interconference games in 2019.
Week 8 at NY Giants, 8:15 PM ET (Monday): Each of the last three games in the series has been decided by three or fewer points.
Week 9 vs. New Orleans, 8:20 PM ET: The Bucs were at least 5-point dogs in their past three at home vs. the Saints (likely not this time) and went 1-2 ATS.
Week 10 at Carolina, 1 PM ET: Cam Newton's final snap with the Panthers was in a 20-14 home loss to the Bucs in Week 2 last year.
Week 11 vs. LA Rams, 8:15 PM ET (Monday): The Bucs ended a six-game ATS skid vs. the Rams with a shocking 55-40 upset last year in L.A.
Week 12 vs. Kansas City, 4:25 PM ET: The Bucs have won five straight in the series (4-1 ATS) but haven't faced Patrick Mahomes. Brady has!
Week 13: BYE. As late as possible and way too late for players' sake.
Week 14 vs. Minnesota, 1 PM ET: The Over is 8-2 in Tampa Bay's past 10 games following a bye week.
Week 15 at Atlanta, 1 PM ET: The total has gone Over in four straight and six of the past seven meetings in Atlanta.
Week 16 at Detroit, TBA ET (Could be Saturday): The Bucs won in Motown 38-17 last year as 6-point favorites to end a two-game ATS skid in series.
Week 17 vs. Atlanta, 1 PM ET: The Bucs are 0-4 SU (2-2 ATS) in their past four at home vs. the Falcons and only were favored once.
Some trends contributed by SDQL Gurus
EXPERT PICK FROM FORMER VEGAS BOOKMAKER MICAH ROBERTS: Over 9.5 wins (-140)
The Bucs are getting all the offseason hype, and it's well deserved. Expect the win total to be bet up to 10 before the preseason. Brady is generating lots of excitement, but it's the fast defense I like to get them over the hump, possibly win the division and play the Super Bowl at home. Despite being down a lot in games last season, they were No. 1 against the run and also created 28 turnovers. They were No. 1 in passing but threw 30 interceptions, one more than Brady has thrown the last four years combined. The Bucs' Super Bowl futures already have lost their value, but Over 9.5 wins still offers plenty.
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TAMPA BAY BUCS SCHEDULE NOTES
Tampa Bay and Atlanta finished with 7-9 marks last year, but the Falcons claimed second in the NFC South because of a better record against division foes. Thus, the Bucs got a "third-place" schedule. That means facing the Rams (third in NFC West) and Giants (third in NFC East). The Bucs and Giants will play for the fourth year in a row and fifth time in a six-season span.
Tampa's home slate looks like the NFL's toughest and features four games vs. 2019 playoff teams. Just look at the quarterbacks coming to Raymond James Stadium: Drew Brees (Saints), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Kirk Cousins (Vikings) and former No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff (Rams). Ryan, Rodgers and Mahomes all have won MVPs, Brees might be the best regular-season QB ever, and Cousins was fourth last year in the NFL in both completion percentage and passer rating. Brady is 4-0 against Ryan, including the Patriots' remarkable comeback from a 28-3 deficit in Super Bowl LI.
On the flip side, the Bucs play just one road game against a team that had a winning record last season: In New Orleans. With Tampa Bay as a 4.5-point underdog in Week 1, it marks the first time Brady has gotten points in a regular-season game since Nov. 30, 2014 in Green Bay. Something has to give there as the Bucs are 3-0 ATS in their past three season openers as underdogs, while Coach Bruce Arians is 0-3 ATS in his past three season openers, and he was not a dog in any of them (one with Bucs, two with Cardinals).
Kansas City's visit in Week 12 marks the fourth time in the last five seasons the defending Super Bowl champion visits Tampa Bay. The Bucs are 1-2 in the previous three (beat Eagles in 2018).
The Week 16 trip to Detroit has an interesting storyline as Lions coach Matt Patricia previously spent 14 seasons as a Patriots assistant coach, including six as New England's defensive coordinator. If anyone knows Brady's weaknesses, it might be him. Patricia has brought in several former Patriots defenders, too. The Patriots tried to trade Gronkowski to Detroit before the 2018 NFL Draft, but Gronk told the Pats he would only play with Brady and said he would retire if dealt. That scuttled the trade.