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Steelers vs. Bills NFL Wild Card odds, trends: Weather much improved Monday but still factor; huge action on total, Najee Harris prop

The rescheduled Steelers-Bills game is Monday at 4:30 p.m. ET.

Matt Severance

While it was not fun to go without NFL games Sunday from 1-4:30 p.m. ET because the Steelers-Bills Wild Card Weekend game was postponed due to a winter storm in Buffalo, at least we now get a Monday doubleheader with this game kicking off at 4:30 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium. Weather will still be a factor, but the total has risen a fair amount to 38.5 on the SportsLine consensus. The most popular player prop is on Pittsburgh running back Najee Harris.

As it turned out, it truly would have been impossible to play Sunday afternoon with how hard Buffalo got hit by the winter storm – they are still shoveling out parts of the stadium (the field is clear), but the game will be played. The field will be hard as a rock, though, because the Bills don't have heating underneath their field like Kansas City did for Saturday night's below-freezing game vs. Miami.

Here's the current Buffalo forecast today from weather.com: "Snow likely. High around 20F. Winds SW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 100%. Snowfall around one inch."

Games with a kickoff temperature of 30 degrees or colder since 2003 have seen the Under hit in just 38% of playoff games (18-29-1). At 20 degrees or colder, that number rises to 40% (8-12-1). If you add in winds of at least 10 mph, the Under has hit in 64% of those 30-degree and colder games and 86% of 20-degree and colder games.

At Bet MGM, 72% of the money and 67% of the bets have come in on the Under – but some of that could be from when it was as low as 33.5, when it was though the game would be played Sunday in a blizzards. Buffalo has also dropped to -9.5 at most books but is back up to -10. The action is split at BetMGM, with 55% of the money wagered ATS on the Bills and 62% of the tickets on Pittsburgh.

Meanwhile, Harris Over 16.5 rushing attempts (+100) is taking huge action, and that makes sense, as Harris has become a much bigger part of the offense during the team's three-game winning streak. That coincided with Mason Rudolph taking over at quarterback. Harris is averaging 24 carries per game in that stretch with a low of 19.

At DraftKings, Harris (+165) is taking the most action for an anytime TD scorer. He has four rushing TDs during the winning streak, including at least one in each game. Bills QB Josh Allen (-120) for an anytime TD is right behind Harris in terms of action. Allen is taking a ton of money as well on two or more TDs (+450), Over 1.5 passing TDs (+100) and Over 39.5 rushing yards (-125).

Today's winner will play next Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET. If it's the Bills, they'll host Kansas City. If it's the Steelers, they'll visit Baltimore. Buffalo (+140) and Pittsburgh (-20) were separated by 160 in points differential this season. Should the Steelers win, it would be the second-largest upset in terms of point differential in the last 10 postseasons. The Titans and Ravens had a 178-point differential gap when Tennessee beat Baltimore in the 2019 Divisional Round.

The Bills were 6-6 at one point and the Steelers were 7-7. Only one team has won a Super Bowl after being .500 or worse that late into a season, the 2011 Giants (7-7). There is some talk this could be the final game as Steelers coach for Mike Tomlin, as he is reportedly pondering stepping away. 

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