SportsLine NFL simulations: Denver Broncos no better with Melvin Gordon
The Denver Broncos reportedly have won the Melvin Gordon sweepstakes, but the SportsLine Projection Model sees no improvement for the team and in fact a very small step back.
How fluid is NFL free agency? About an hour after SportsLine oddsmakers had released odds on Melvin Gordon's next team, it was reported he had signed and it wasn't with one of the favorites like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Buffalo Bills, but with the Denver Broncos.
Interesting choice by both Gordon and the team because the Broncos didn't seem to have a huge need at tailback with a solid young duo of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Lindsay, a 2018 undrafted free agent, has rushed for at least 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, although his yards per carry did drop quite a bit to 4.5 (acceptable) in 2019. Freeman averaged only 3.8 yards per carry last year.
Then again, it's not far to blame either running back for any struggles because Denver's quarterback play behind Joe Flacco and then Brandon Allen was one of the NFL's worst until it got better in the final few games of the season under Drew Lock.
Gordon held out to start last season with the Chargers and was no better than Lindsay or Freeman when he did play, averaging 3.8 yards per carry. Reports were earlier Thursday that Gordon was close to a deal with the Bills.
The SportsLine Projection Model has the Broncos actually getting very slightly worse with this addition, dropping from 7.7 wins in 2020 to 7.6. It likes the Chargers getting slightly better without Gordon and using Austin Ekeler as the featured back, lifting L.A.'s win total from 8.0 to 8.1.
On the William Hill NFL futures odds, the Chargers and Broncos are both +1000 to win the AFC West.
| LA CHARGERS | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| w/ Gordon | 8.0 | 50.0% | 7.0% | 31.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| w/o Gordon | 8.1 | 50.6% | 7.6% | 32.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Difference | 0.1 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| DENVER | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| Before | 7.7 | 48.1% | 4.3% | 24.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| w/ Gordon | 7.6 | 47.5% | 4.0% | 22.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Difference | -0.1 | -0.6% | -0.3% | -1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |