SportsLine NFL futures simulations: 2020 Raiders worse with Tom Brady than Derek Carr
Could Tom Brady end up with the Las Vegas Raiders for the 2020 season? The SportsLine Projection Model has run an early simulation on Brady joining the Silver & Black.
NFL free agency opens on March 18, and with all due respect to guys like Dak Prescott, Philip Rivers or Jadeveon Clowney who could hit the open market -- Rivers already has, Prescott will surely be tagged by Dallas – the biggest name by far is Tom Brady. That's what happens when you win six Super Bowl rings and are considered by many as the GOAT among quarterbacks.
The Patriots can't slap a tag on Brady for contractual reasons, so if TB12 wants to finish his legendary career somewhere else, that's completely up to him. DraftKings has an NFL futures prop up on Brady's next team. The Las Vegas Raiders are the 7/1 (+700) second-favorites behind Brady going back to New England (20/91; -455).
How interesting would a pairing of Brady and Jon Gruden be? That would be great on "Hard Knocks," but HBO isn't about to feature the Raiders for a second straight season. Gruden reportedly isn't all that high on incumbent starting quarterback Derek Carr, and owner Mark Davis is keen to create some major buzz around his franchise with the move to Sin City. Brady would provide mega-buzz.
The SportsLine Projection Model – these simulations are going to change once the 2020 schedule is released and the Raiders make other moves – projects as of now for the Raiders to win 5.6 games next year with Carr as the starter and 5.0 with Brady (using his statistics from the 2019 season). Las Vegas has a 3.7 percent chance at the playoffs with Carr and 1.7 with Brady.
The various sportsbooks are a bit more optimistic on the Raiders for 2020 as they have a betting Over-Under of 7 victories, with the Over a slight favorite. Here are the Raiders' opponents, and one road game clearly stands out were Brady to sign with the team:
Home: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Away: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, New England Patriots, New York Jets.