Patriots vs. Bills Monday NFL injury report, spread, odds: Weather forecast looks messy in Buffalo; bettors crushing under total

The total for Monday night's New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills game, which is huge in the AFC East, opened at 46 points at Caesars Sportsbook but is all the way down to 41 with heavy Under action at the book likely because of the weather forecast. It's supposed to rain much of the day but be about 28 degrees at kickoff with a nine percent chance of sleet and winds from the west at 25-35 mph and potential gusts over 40 mph. Click here for model picks. 

As of this writing, about 90 percent of money wagered on the total is on the Under and 55 percent of tickets sold. New England leads the NFL in scoring defense in allowing 15.8 points per game and Buffalo is second at 16.5. Since 2003 in NFL games with winds of 25 mph or stronger, the Under has gone 12-3. On the spread of Buffalo -2.5, the Patriots are taking 54 percent of tickets but the Bills 73 percent of money.

The big injury is with Buffalo All-Pro cornerback Tre'Davious White, who was lost for the season in the team's Thanksgiving night victory at New Orleans. When White was the nearest defender this season, he was allowing only a 50.8 completion percentage and 58.9 passer rating, both fourth-best among defensive backs with 50-plus targets this season. White has 41 tackles, six passes defensed and a pick. Rookie seventh-round pick Dane Jackson will start in his place.

Otherwise, both teams are quite healthy for this late in the season. Buffalo defensive tackle Star Lotulelei recently came off the COVID list and should play. He's great against the run.

The winner Monday will obviously have a huge tiebreaker in the AFC as the Pats are a half-game up on Buffalo but have played one extra game. New England finally has its bye in Week 14. The Patriots are 3-4 vs. the Bills under Bill Belichick without Tom Brady, who was an absurd 32-3 in his career against Buffalo. Josh Allen is the only Bills QB to defeat Patriots at least twice under Belichick.

New England enters having won and covered six straight games since starting the season 2-4. Mac Jones is looking to become fourth rookie QB in Super Bowl era to win seven straight starts. He's a Florida kid so it will be curious how Jones responds to the weather.

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