NFL playoff picture odds: Chiefs now favored for top seed in AFC, but Steelers still control destiny for first-round bye

This writer isn't sure how many members of the 1972 Miami Dolphins are still around, but they likely cracked open the champagne Monday night when the Washington Football Team went to Pittsburgh and upset the Steelers, meaning those 1972 Dolphins will remain the only team to win a Super Bowl and finish without a loss. The good news for the Steelers (11-1) is that they still control their destiny to earn the AFC's top seed, but SportsLine oddsmakers now list the Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) as the favorites to get it.

Remember, this year there was seventh playoff team added to each conference postseason field, meaning that only the No. 1 seed gets a first-round bye. No team without a first-round bye has even reached the Super Bowl since the 2012 Baltimore Ravens.

If Pittsburgh was going to lose, it was much, much better that it came to an NFC team. Yes, it's a tad concerning for Steelers fans that Washington entered the game at 4-7 and that .364 winning percentage was the lowest ever by a team to defeat an opponent that entered 11-0 or better in NFL history. The Steelers jumped out to a 14-0 lead and had been 109-1-1, including playoffs, in games with at least a 14-point since drafting Ben Roethlisberger in 2004.

At William Hill Sportsbook, Pittsburgh dropped to a co-third favorite at +800 to win Super Bowl 55 and +400 to win the AFC with Kansas City at -115.

Again, though, if the Steelers win out, they will be the AFC's No. 1 overall seed because they are unbeaten in the AFC and Kansas City isn't – its lone loss was to the Raiders -- and the teams don't play head-to-head.

Why do SportsLine oddsmakers favor the Chiefs for the top seed? Pittsburgh has not been playing well the past few weeks and has a very tough test at AFC East-leading Buffalo (9-3) this Sunday night. The Steelers had opened as 2-point favorites, but it's down to a pick'em at William Hill. Pittsburgh also hosts a good Colts team in Week 16 and could be an underdog Week 17 in Cleveland. In fact, the Browns could steal the AFC North now. 

Kansas City will be more than a touchdown favorite in three of its final four games: Sunday at Miami, Week 16 vs. Atlanta and Week 17 vs. the LA Chargers. What looms large is a Week 15 trip to New Orleans, a potential Super Bowl preview. Also note: Chiefs star QB Patrick Mahomes has yet to play a road playoff game in his otherwise spectacular NFL career.

The SportsLine Projection Model just slightly favors the Steelers getting the No. 1 seed, finishing with a simulation of 13.7 wins and Kansas City at 13.6.

Via SportsLine NFL oddsmakers: Who will be the AFC's top seed (and get lone first-round bye) in the playoffs?

• Kansas City -170
• Pittsburgh +130
• Buffalo +4500 (loses H2H tiebreaker with KC)

So which teams should you back in Week 14 of the 2020 NFL season? And which Super Bowl contender goes down HARD? ... Join SportsLine right now to see who wins and covers every single NFL game this week, plus get the exact final score, all from the acclaimed model that has returned over $7,800 on its top-rated NFL picks!