NFL odds favor Dak Prescott and Cowboys reaching long-term extension by July 15 deadline

The deadline for NFL players currently on the franchise tag to reach a long-term extension with their team is next Wednesday afternoon (July 15) or else said player must play out the season on the tag if they have signed it. Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has signed his $31.4 million tender, so he won't be holding out all of 2020 like former Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell did in 2018. Prescott is now contractually obligated to participate in Cowboys training camp, which opens July 28.

The 26-year-old Prescott (27 on July 29) will make nearly eight times more in 2020 than he did from 2016-19 on his rookie contract -- less than $5 million total – as a 2016 fourth-round pick.

Will Prescott and the Cowboys agree on an extension by next Wednesday? The Kansas City Chiefs just extended superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes on a 12-year deal worth potentially $503 million, although all NFL contracts are misleading.

In reality, only about $141 million of that is guaranteed and for injury only. For all intents and purposes, Mahomes now has an average annual salary of $45 million that is easily the highest in NFL history. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson had held the mark of $35 million per season.

The Mahomes deal could help Jerry Jones get something done with Prescott because now there's zero chance Prescott's agent can ask to be the highest-paid player in the league.  Prescott is a fine player, but he's not Mahomes, who already owns a regular-season MVP and Super Bowl title and SB MVP in just two full seasons as a starter.

By comparison, last year with Dallas missing the postseason, Prescott was 1-6 against playoff teams and 7-2 against non-playoff teams. Prescott has one playoff win in his career and has missed the postseason twice in his first four seasons.

Mahomes is a +350 favorite on the William Hill sportsbook moneyline odds to win another regular-season MVP in 2020, while Prescott is +1500. To lead the NFL in passing yards, Mahomes is the +450 favorite and Prescott a +700 second-favorite with Atlanta's Matt Ryan.

Prescott's camp reportedly is requesting a four-year extension so the QB can sign another big deal at age 30 when the NFL salary cap is likely much higher thanks to new TV/streaming deals. All broadcast rights for league games are locked up until 2022.

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The Cowboys reportedly have offered Prescott a five-year, $175 million contract with guarantees around the $110 million that Jared Goff received from the Los Angeles Rams. Prescott is certainly better than Goff, and Prescott's agent, Todd France, reportedly wants to surpass Wilson's $35 million annual salary number as well as Goff's $110 million guarantee.

Prescott also could opt to play this season on the tag, and the team likely would slap it on him again in 2021, when it would pay $38 million. If the Cowboys wanted to use the franchise tag on Prescott for a third year, it would cost more than $54 million.

In theory, Prescott would earn about $69 million playing this year and next on the franchise tag – no team has ever used that tag three years in a row as it's just not financially tenable -- and then could hit unrestricted free agency at age 28.

History under Jerry Jones says a long-term deal will get done by July 15. Jones signed both Troy Aikman and Tony Romo to deals before either came close to free agency, and four of the previous five players the Cowboys slapped with the franchise tag (DeMarcus Lawrence, Dez Bryant, Ken Hamlin and Flozell Adams) all did ink deals before the deadline. The only one who didn't was Anthony Spencer.

Dallas opens the season at Goff's Rams on Sunday night, Sept. 13, with the Cowboys as 2.5-point favorites. 

Via SportsLine NFL oddsmakers: Will Dak Prescott play this season on the franchise tag?

• No -500
• Yes +300

If Prescott signs an extension by July 15, will it surpass $35 million annually?

• Yes -300
• No +220

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