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Lamar Jackson NFL Divisional Round odds, props vs. Texans: Ravens QB, likely 2023 league MVP, has unimpressive playoff resume

Lamar Jackson has struggled in his playoff career. Baltimore hosts Houston on Saturday.

Matt Severance

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is all but a lock to win his second NFL MVP Award this season after leading Baltimore to the AFC's top seed for the first time since 2019. However, Jackson has been very underwhelming in his postseason career, which he'll look to remedy in Saturday's Divisional Round home matchup against Houston and likely NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud. The Ravens are up to -9.5 on the SportsLine consensus. Click here for expert picks.

The 2023 season feels very familiar to that 2019 campaign for Baltimore, which is not a good thing. The Ravens finished as the AFC's top seed and Jackson was a unanimous choice for MVP. The team rested most of its starters in a meaningless regular-season finale against Pittsburgh (ditto here) and then came out flat in the Divisional Round against an AFC South team, in that case Tennessee. Baltimore was a 10-point favorite but was dominated by the Titans in a 28-12 loss.

Overall, Jackson is 1-3 straight up in his playoff career and 0-2 SU and against the spread as a home favorite:

  • 2018 Wild Card: Lost 23-17 vs Chargers as a 3-point favorite
  • 2019 Divisional Round: Lost 28-12 vs. Titans as a 10-point favorite

The former Heisman winner has just four touchdowns (three passing, one rushing) and seven turnovers in those four play off games. In addition, Jackson has the fifth-largest passer rating decrease (minus-29.7) from the regular season (98.0) to the playoffs (68.3) in NFL history (minimum 100 pass attempts). Baltimore led the NFL with nine playoff wins in John Harbaugh's first five seasons from 2008-12 but has just two since.

Jackson would become the 11th player in NFL history to win multiple NFL MVP awards. He would be the second-youngest at the time of his second win behind legendary Cleveland running back Jim Brown. If Jackson wins MVP and loses on Saturday, he would be the only QB in NFL history with more MVPs (two) than playoff wins (one).

On the bright side, Jackson has eight wins this season against teams with a winning record by at least 14 points, the most by any quarterback in league history in a campaign. In Week 1, Baltimore was also -9.5 at home vs. Houston and won 25-9, although Jackson was rather quiet with no TDs, 169 passing yards, 38 rushing yards, a pick and a lost fumble

Here are Lamar Jackson props available at DraftKings and FanDuel:

  • To win Super Bowl MVP: +325 favorite
  • Most passing yards overall in playoffs: +1600
  • Over/Under total playoff passing yards: 542.5
  • Most passing yards in Divisional Round: +1100
  • Most rushing yards overall in playoffs: +1600
  • Over/Under total playoff rushing yards: 117.5
  • Over/Under total playoff rushing TDs: 0.5 (Over heavy -180 favorite)
  • Over/Under passing yards Saturday: 228.5
  • Over/Under passing TDs Saturday: 1.5
  • Over/Under rushing yards Saturday: 52.5
  • Anytime TD scorer Saturday: +120
  • Jackson and Devin Singletary to combine for at least 150 rushing yards Saturday: +300
  • Jackson or Stroud to have at least 350 passing yards Saturday: +400
  • Jackson and Stroud to combine for at least five passing TDs Saturday: +350
  • Jackson to have at least four passing TDs Saturday: +1000
  • Jackson to rush for at least 50 yards in each half Saturday: +1300

Baltimore did not have a 1,000-yard rusher or 1,000-yard receiver this season, but three of the past five No. 1 seeds also in that boat did win the Super Bowl. The Ravens also led in the final two minutes of their first 16 regular-season games, only the second team ever to do that along with the 2007 Patriots, who finished 16-0.

Perhaps the Ravens would have had a 1,000-yard receiver if All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews hadn't been injured in Week 11 and shut down for the rest of the regular season. He has a chance of returning Saturday as he has been practicing this week. In six games without Andrews, backup tight end Isaiah Likely caught 21 passes for 322 yards and five touchdowns.

"Mark is still up in the air," Harbaugh said after Thursday's practice. The sportsbooks are waiting on individual Andrews props, but he's +120 for an anytime TD Saturday. 

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