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Cowboys vs. Commanders NFL Week 18 odds, props: Dallas just needs to beat Sam Howell for NFC East title; kicker Brandon Aubrey can make history

Dallas wins the NFC East title with a victory at Washington on Sunday.

Matt Severance

No team has been more dominant at home this season than the Dallas Cowboys, and they would guarantee themselves at least one playoff game at AT&T Stadium as the NFC East champion with a victory at Washington on Sunday in what is widely expected to be Ron Rivera's final game as head coach. Washington is +13.5 on the SportsLine consensus, and Sam Howell will keep his role as starting quarterback despite some glaring red flags. Click here for model picks.

Dallas beating Detroit 20-19 in Week 17, largely thanks to some questionable officiating, was big because it gave the Cowboys a head-to-head tiebreaker over the NFC North champion Lions. Thus, if the Cowboys win Sunday they will be the NFC's No. 2 seed as the East champion and would only leave AT&T Stadium, where they have won 16 straight games and seven of eight this season by double digits, for an NFC title game matchup at top-seeded San Francisco. The Cowboys are 3-5 on the road.

If Dallas does prevail Sunday, it would mark the 19th straight season without a repeat NFC East champion, extending the longest streak for any division in NFL history. The Cowboys would be the NFC's top wild card team for the second postseason in a row if they lose and Philadelphia wins at the New York Giants, although Eagles coach Nick Sirianni has talked about potentially resting his starters on the assumption that Dallas will win and Philly will be the top wild card team.

Dak Prescott can become the first Cowboys quarterback to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns and is currently first with 32, He's one ahead of San Francisco's Brock Purdy, who won't play in Week 18, and two up on Green Bay's Jordan Love. Prescott may finish as high as second in the MVP voting. He's currently a +1800 second-favorite behind Baltimore's Lamar Jackson (-20000).

Prescott figures to have a big day against a Washington defense ranked last in scoring (30.0 points per game allowed) and total defense (385.8 yards per game). The Commanders appear to have quit on Rivera, as their seven-game skid is the NFL's longest. New owner Josh Harris is all but surely cleaning house this offseason.

Washington closed as a 14-point home underdog last week in a 27-10 loss to the 49ers. This marks the first time a team has been at least a 13-point home dog in consecutive weeks since the 2000 Cleveland Browns in Weeks 15 and 16. The Browns lost those games by 11 (Philadelphia) and 24 (Tennessee).

One of the most-plugged in Commanders reporters is NBC Sports Washington's JP Finlay. He tweeted on Thursday that he "get[s] the vibe a lot of Commanders veterans wont play this weekend." That surprises me if true because you'd think the players would want to try and ruin the division hopes of the hated Cowboys. Then again, maybe a lot of those players already have checked out.

The Commanders' Howell beat the Cowboys in Week 18 last season in Maryland in his first career start, but Dallas had nothing to play for then. Howell leads the NFL with 19 interceptions and has been sacked a league-high 61 times, meaning he's probably not the QB of the future and that the position will be addressed in the offseason. The Commanders could pick as high as second and be in position to take Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. In fact, it behooves the franchise to lose Sunday and pick second instead of third or fourth. Williams and Maye could both be off the board after the No. 2 pick. Williams for sure will be gone.

Can't say we talk about kickers much in this space, but Cowboys 28-year-old rookie Brandon Aubrey is having a potentially historic season. He's made all 35 of his field-goal attempts. The single-season NFL record for most field goals without a miss was 37 by the Colts' Mike Vanderjagt in 2003. There's no kicking props up yet, but Aubrey surely will be set at over/under 1.5 made field goals. His career high for makes is five, which he accomplished early in the season vs. the Jets. 

Aubrey also has nearly doubled Travis Coons' record of 18 field goals without a miss to begin an NFL career, and Aubrey has made nine field goals from 50 yards or longer. Only two kickers in NFL history have more attempts from at least 50 yards without a miss: Blair Walsh (Vikings) and Justin Tucker (Ravens). Each went 10-for-10 from that distance in 2012 and 2016, respectively. 

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