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C.J. Stroud NFL Divisional Round odds, props vs. Ravens: Texans quarterback can accomplish rare playoff feat with upset

Houston visits Baltimore in the AFC Divisional Round on Saturday.

Matt Severance

Houston's C.J. Stroud had one of the great rookie seasons in NFL history and would make some postseason history Saturday if he could lead the fourth-seeded Texans to an upset of the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens, who are 9.5-point home favorites on the SportsLine consensus behind likely MVP Lamar Jackson. The only other rookie QB to beat a No. 1 seed in the playoffs was Joe Flacco, ironically for Baltimore in 2008 vs. Tennessee. Click here for expert picks.

Speaking of Flacco, the Texans were 2-point home underdogs last Saturday in the wild-card round to Flacco's Browns but rolled to a 45-14 win. Stroud completed 16 of his 21 passes for 274 yards, three touchdowns and zero picks for a rating of 157.2 that was just shy of perfect. It was highest mark ever by a player in his first postseason start (minimum 20 attempts) – Green Bay's Jordan Love then put up the exact same rating last Sunday in a win over Dallas. The previous record rookie rating was 150.4 by the Packers' Lynn Dickey on Jan. 8, 1983, in a 41-16 win over the St. Louis Cardinals.

Coach DeMeco Ryans and Stroud became the third rookie coach-quarterback duo since 1950 to win a playoff game. Stroud was the first quarterback drafted in the top two of the draft since 1967 to start and win a playoff game in his rookie season. He also became the youngest to win a playoff contest, passing Michael Vick.

Including that Browns victory, Stroud now has 21 passing touchdowns and just two picks against teams with a winning record this season, the best ratio by any QB in any season in NFL history (minimum 250 attempts).

Rookie quarterbacks rarely get the best of Ravens coach John Harbaugh, however, as they are 2-17 in Baltimore with Harbaugh as head coach with just 10 passing TDs and 24 picks. That includes Houston's 25-9 loss in Week 1, when no one had any clue Stroud was going to be this good after he struggled quite a bit in the preseason. He was 28-for-44 for 242 yards with no TDs or picks.

Cleveland had the No. 1 total defense in the NFL in the regular season and Baltimore had the No. 1 scoring defense (16.5 points per game allowed). Houston can become the sixth team ever to defeat the No. 1 scoring defense and No. 1 total defense in different games in a single postseason. The Texans would join 1967 Packers (QB was Bart Starr), 1975 Cowboys (Roger Staubach), 1988 and 1989 49ers (Joe Montana) and 1999 Titans (Steve McNair).

Houston was +20000 in the preseason to win the Super Bowl and can pass the 1999 Rams and 2021 Bengals for the longest such odds by a team to reach the conference title game in the past 45 years.

That Stroud throws for the most yards of any quarterback in the Divisional Round is +600, ahead of only Love (+650), Josh Allen (+1200) and Jackson (+1500). Baltimore wasn't actually that great against the pass, allowing 232.2 yards per game. That Stroud throws for the most yards of any QB this postseason is a +1800 longshot because the Texans aren't supposed to advance. FanDuel gives him an over/under playoff total of 547.5 yards.

Here's a list of various Stroud props available on DraftKings or FanDuel:

  • To lead postseason in passing yards: +1800
  • To lead Divisional Round in passing yards: +600
  • Over/Under total postseason passing yards: 547.5
  • To throw at least three TDs Saturday: +500
  • To rush for at least 50 yards Saturday: +800
  • To pass for at least 270 yards Saturday & Nico Collins with at least 90 receiving yards: +275
  • Stroud or Lamar Jackson to throw for at least 350 yards: +400
  • Stroud and Lamar Jackson to combine for at least five passing TDs: +350
  • Stroud with at least 150 yards passing in each half: +750
  • Over/Under passing yards Saturday: 242.5
  • Over/Under attempts: 34.5
  • Over/Under completions: 20.5
  • Over/Under longest completion: 37.5 yards
  • Over/Under interceptions: 0.5 (Over -175 favorite)
  • Anytime TD scorer: +600 (has rushed for three TDs this season)

The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Stroud to complete 19 of 32 passes for 215 yards with 1.08 TDs and 0.72 INTs while rushing for 11 yards on 2.5 carries. Stroud is 5-2 straight up and 6-1 ATS in his past seven as a dog.

The former Ohio State star is looking to become the third rookie QB to win multiple playoff games (2009 Mark Sanchez, 2022 Brock Purdy) and has 4,382 passing yards this season, including the playoffs, 281 shy of breaking Andrew Luck's rookie record of 4,662 with the 2012 Colts.

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