Chiefs vs. Bucs Super Bowl 55 odds, spread: Tom Brady Super Bowl underdog for only second time

Super Bowl 55 is set for Feb. 7 in Tampa and on CBS as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will become the first team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium. However, they are 3-point underdogs on the William Hill Sportsbook NFL odds against the Kansas City Chiefs, who look to become the first team since Tom Brady's Patriots in the 2004 season to repeat as NFL champions. It's just the second time in Brady's 10 Super Bowl trips that his team is an underdog.

Brady's first year as New England's starter was 2001 – thanks to a vicious hit by Jets linebacker Mo Lewis on then-Patriots starting quarterback Drew Bledsoe – and the Pats were 14-point dogs against the "Greatest Show on Turf" St. Louis Rams. New England won 20-17. The favored team is 35-19 straight up in the Super Bowl, though.

Needless to say, the betting action could change, but the early lean at William Hill shows 57 percent of the tickets sold on Kansas City to cover and 89 percent of all money wagered. Typically, the Super Bowl favorites do get the early action and then the "sharps" come in late and bet the underdog.

The Over/Under total of 56.5 points is tied for the second-highest in Super Bowl history, behind the 58 in Patriots vs. Falcons in SB LI following the 2016 season. Brady won that game 34-28 in overtime, rallying from down 28-3 late in the third quarter. That remains the lone Super Bowl OT game. Sixty percent of the tickets sold at William Hill are on the Over for Super Bowl 55 and 83 percent of money wagered.

This will be the first-ever Super Bowl between the last two Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks. It's the seventh Super Bowl overall between QBs who had previously won one. If Brady wins No. 7, that would put him ahead of every other franchise. The Pats and Steelers both have won six.

Kansas City visited Tampa in Week 12 and was a 3.5-point favorite; Patrick Mahomes & Co. won 27-24. He threw for 462 yards and three scores. Tyreek Hill went bananas with 13 catches for 269 yards and three TDs. Hill had seven catches for 203 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter, joining Qadry Ismail (210 in the third quarter on Dec. 12, 1999) and Lee Evans (205 in the first Nov. 19, 2006) as the only NFL receivers since 1980 to have 200 yards receiving in a quarter.

The game really wasn't that close as Tampa scored 14 fourth-quarter garbage points to make it interesting. Brady threw for 345 yards and three scores but was picked twice. The Chiefs obviously didn't cover that game and have covered just once in their past 10. 

The SportsLine Projection Model which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters the 2021 Super Bowl on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.