Chicago Bears schedule 2020 -- NFL betting analysis
Which Chicago Bears will show up this season? The 2018 version that won the NFC North or the 2019 team that struggled to 8-8? Here's a betting breakdown of Chicago's 2020 schedule.
The 2020 season likely is make-or-break for Bears general manager Ryan Pace, coach Matt Nagy and quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who will have to beat out Nick Foles for the starting job. Should the Bears fail to make the playoffs a second straight year, ownership could clean house.
Thankfully, Chicago is set up for a fast start. Its first seven opponents failed to make the playoffs last year.
Things get tougher starting Week 8 vs. New Orleans. The Bears' Week 16 trip to Jacksonville looks like a potential mega-trap sandwiched between rivalry games at the Vikings and versus the Packers.
The Bears open at Detroit, which is no gimme. Chicago won its last two visits in close games. And, the Bears have lost six straight season openers (2-4 ATS).
Chicago's bye comes in Week 11, before a visit to Lambeau Field. Consider betting the Packers in that one as Chicago is 0-6 SU and ATS in its last six games following a bye, falling short of oddsmakers' expectations by a whopping average of 16.5 points.
CHICAGO BEARS BETTING PROFILE
2019 record: 8-8 (third, NFC North)
2019 against the spread: 4-12 (worst in NFL)
2019 ATS margin: -2.6
2019 Over-Under: 6-10
2020 strength of schedule: Tied for 13th-toughest; Bears' opponents combined for a .509 winning percentage last year (129-125-2).
WILLIAM HILL 2020 CHICAGO BEARS FUTURES ODDS
Win total: 8 (Under -125 favorite)
To make playoffs: No -180, yes +155
Division: +450 to win NFC North
Conference: +2000 to win NFC
Super Bowl 55: +4000 to win second Super Bowl (won SB XX)
NFL MVP: Nick Foles +10,000, Mitchell Trubisky +15,000, Khalil Mack also +15,000
Defensive Player of the Year: Mack +1000 to win it for second time in career, Akiem Hicks +10,000
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jaylon Johnson +3000
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cole Kmet +5000
Comeback Player of the Year: Nick Foles +1600
Coach of the Year: Matt Nagy +3000
SportsLine Model's projection: 8.4 wins (Pick is Over)
CHICAGO BEARS GAME-BY-GAME BETTING TRENDS
Week 1 at Detroit, 1 p.m. ET: Chicago has won its past two in Motown (both on Thanksgiving) in close games (1-1 ATS).
Week 2 vs. New York Giants, 1 p.m. ET: The Bears have covered once in the past six meetings after failing last year as 6-point home faves in 19-14 win.
Week 3 at Atlanta, 1 p.m. ET: Under Nagy, the Bears are 8-13 ATS (38 percent) outside the NFC North.
Week 4 vs. Indianapolis, 1 p.m. ET: The Over has hit in just two of Chicago's past 10 October home games.
Week 5 vs. Tampa Bay, 8:20 PM ET (Thursday): These teams have split the past 10 meetings ATS, with the Bears winning the most recent, 48-10 at home in September 2018.
Week 6 at Carolina, 1 p.m. ET: The Bears haven't visited Carolina since 2014; they're 1-3 SU, 1-2-1 ATS all-time in Charlotte.
Week 7 at Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 PM (Monday): This is the third straight season these teams play and the home team won and covered first two in low-scoring games.
Week 8 vs. New Orleans, 4:25 p.m. ET: Chicago has lost the past five in this series (1-4 ATS), including 36-25 last year as 4-point home favorite.
Week 9 at Tennessee, 1 p.m. ET: Under Nagy, the Bears are 2-6 ATS vs. the AFC and failed to cover all four in 2019.
Week 10 vs. Minnesota, 8:15 PM ET (Monday): In the past 10 home meetings, the Bears are 8-2 ATS, failing to cover only in 2015 & '13.
Week 11: BYE. Much later in season than players prefer.
Week 12 at Green Bay, 8:20 p.m. ET: The Bears have dropped four straight at Lambeau (1-3 ATS), including 21-13 last year as 4.5-point dogs.
Week 13 vs Detroit, 1 p.m. ET: The Under is 8-1 in the Bears' last nine games after visiting Green Bay, the lone Over coming on an overtime touchdown.
Week 14 vs. Houston, 1 p.m. ET: The Bears have faced the Texans four times (but not Deshaun Watson -- see below) and are 0-4 SU and ATS.
Week 15 at Minnesota, 1 p.m. ET: Under Nagy, the Bears are 8-4 ATS (67 percent) in division games.
Week 16 at Jacksonville, 1 p.m. ET: Chicago is 4-6 ATS in its past 10 December games as a road favorite (should be here).
Week 17 vs. Green Bay, 1 p.m. ET: The Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games vs. GB, with seven decided by single digits.
Some trends contributed by SDQL Gurus
EXPERT PICK FROM SUPERCONTEST GURU R.J. WHITE: Over 8.5 (+140)
The Bears came back to earth in 2019, and now is the time to buy their stock. While they didn't make a bunch of key additions during the offseason, they've improved their depth measurably, particularly with another option at quarterback that improves their chances of landing league-average production or better at the position. The schedule sets up well, particularly early in the season where they open with winnable road games in Detroit and Atlanta sandwiching an easier home opponent in the Giants, then they play two tougher games against the Colts and Bucs, but with both coming at home, before a trip to Carolina. Considering where the juice is, I'd look to wait until you can get Over 8 flat and hop on it.
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CHICAGO BEARS SCHEDULE NOTES
Chicago's home slate appears much tougher than the road version with Deshaun Watson, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers all visiting outside the NFC North games.
Chicago plays Brady as an NFC opponent for the first time in Week 5; Brady is 5-0 in his career vs. the Bears. He led a 38-31 victory at Solider Field in Week 7 of the 2018 season as the Pats (-3) covered.
Chicago actually has been a solid bet in Trubisky's 41 career regular-season starts, going 21-16-4 against the spread (23-18 straight up). The Over-Under in those games is 16-25, against an average total of 41.8. That's not a huge surprise as the Bears have had an excellent defense and iffy offense over that span.
Foles is 31-25 straight up in games he has started or played a majority, and 25-29-2 ATS.
As a home dog, Foles is 3-8 ATS (average spread +3.7) -- and the Bears likely will be home dogs a couple of times in 2020. The MVP of Super Bowl LII, Foles is likely to join Jim McMahon (led Bears to Super Bowl XX title) and Trent Dilfer as the only Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks to start for five different teams.
Week 6 at Carolina, the Bears likely will see Teddy Bridgewater as the Panthers' starting QB; Chicago reportedly had chased him in free agency before trading for Foles. Foles went 0-4 as a starter last year with the Jaguars, whom the Bears visit in Week 16.
The Rams' Week 7 matchup features the two highest-paid defenders in the league in Mack (2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year) and L.A.'s Aaron Donald (2017-18 DPOY).
When the Saints visit in Week 8, it most likely will be the last game future Hall of Famer Brees plays in the Windy City with Brees expected to retire after this season. Brees was out injured when the Saints, getting two TD passes from Bridgewater, won easily at Soldier Field last year.
The Week 14 matchup vs. Houston is the Bears' first look at Watson; Chicago GM Ryan Pace could have selected Watson at No. 3 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft but opted to trade up to No. 2 and grab Trubisky. Bears fans will remind Pace of that fact plenty in this game (i.e. signs, chants).
Including a 2010 playoff victory at Chicago, Green Bay has won 21 of the last 26 meetings between the rivals at Soldier Field (Week 17). Last season, the teams opened there and the Packers won an offensive snoozer, 10-3, with neither team mustering 260 yards. The last time the Packers and Bears closed the season against one another at Soldier Field, it was for the NFC North title in 2013. Chicago lost 33-28 on an Aaron Rodgers 48-yard TD pass with 46 seconds left. Rodgers had just returned from a broken collarbone suffered earlier that season against the Bears.