Browns 2021 NFL odds: JJ Watt free-agent signing make Cleveland betting favorite to win AFC North Division? Ravens would stay as team to beat

When SportsLine posted odds on the next team for ex-Houston Texans defensive end and three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year JJ Watt last week, the Cleveland Browns were +500 fourth favorites behind the Green Bay Packers (+150), Pittsburgh Steelers (+200) and Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs (+400). However, a report out of Cleveland today says that Watt is "seriously considering" joining the Browns. Would that propel them into the favored role in the AFC North? Almost surely not.

William Hill Sportsbook just released its first 2021 NFL division odds and the Browns are +200 second-favorites behind Baltimore (+110); Cleveland hasn't won the division since way back in 1989. Watt is still a very good player but not enough by himself to catch the Ravens, whose two key free agents are edge rushers Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue. The Browns would get a slight odds bump, though, and any potential heavy betting action on them would also influence the number.

Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com wrote today that "Watt is seriously considering the Browns as one of his options because they have a lot of what he wants." The two biggest things in Cleveland's favor: Plenty of salary cap space and a Super Bowl-caliber roster.

As we wrote last week, Watt would immediately become a folk hero in Cleveland by leading the team to its first-ever Super Bowl – Watt's Texans, the Jaguars and Lions are the only other franchises never to reach the game.

Because Watt was released, he doesn't have to wait until free agency opens March 17 to sign with a team; he could choose to today, in theory. Watt was set to make $17.5 million this year in Houston and Cleveland has $21.7 million in cap space as of today per Overthecap.com.

Watt is from Wisconsin, grew up a Packers fan and his parents still live there, but the Pack would have to make some cap magic happen as they are nearly $20 million over. Pittsburgh, where Watt's two brothers play, is currently more than $30 million over the projected cap number. Tampa Bay has about the same amount of cap space as the Browns and Watt already is on record as gushing about playing with Tom Brady.

Another thing the Browns could offer Watt: A player better than him (at least at this point in their careers) to take up double-teams. That would be end Myles Garrett, who was sixth in the NFL last season with 12 sacks despite missing two games. Garrett was double-teamed on 25 percent of his snaps in 2020; Watt was double-teamed on a league-high 30 percent among edge rushers. No opposing team would be able to double-team both all game long.

Cleveland is scheduled to host Houston in 2021, for what it's worth. NFL win totals won't be released for a while as the league is planning to add a 17th game. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts the Browns to win 7.8 games with their current 16-game schedule. Watt would boost that number a bit. William Hill lists Cleveland at +2000 to win Super Bowl 56. 

William Hill odds to win 2021 AFC North title

• Ravens +110
• Browns +200
• Steelers +300
• Bengals +2000

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is also up more than $8,400 on top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it enters Week 9 of the 2020-21 NBA schedule on a stunning 83-48 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anybody who has followed it has seen HUGE returns.