Bills vs. Chiefs NFL injury report, spread, odds: Kansas City smallest home favorite in Patrick Mahomes era; Travis Kelce can set postseason record

The NFL's Divisional Round concludes Sunday evening from Kansas City as the Chiefs look for a fourth straight trip to the AFC Championship Game as currently 2-point favorites at Caesars Sportsbook against the Buffalo Bills. If that spread holds or drops a bit, which many books are expecting when the sharps jump in late, it will mark the smallest the Chiefs have been as home underdogs in the Patrick Mahomes era. This is the first time since 1971 that all four favorites in the Divisional Round are favored by six points or fewer.

Kansas City opened at -2.5 at Caesars Sportsbook and briefly got to -1.5 this week – where it still sits at some books – but is currently -2.

"I can't see it going much lower than (-1.5)," said Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. "That Bills performance last week was just so impressive, you can't fault anything that they did. Kansas City was impressive too, albeit against a Pittsburgh team that they thought they were going to handle with ease. But the Bills were just on another level. If they can get close to replicating that performance, that should be enough. And they've got the confidence since they went in and beat the Chiefs in Kansas City earlier this season."

Mahomes has played 37 career home games for the Chiefs including playoffs and has never been less than a 2.5-point favorite at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City was -2.5 in Week 11 vs. Dallas and won 19-9.

As for the total, it opened at 53.5 and got to 54.5 for a few days but is back to 53.5 – by far the highest of any game this weekend. It will be chilly Sunday night in KC but weather shouldn't be a factor. So far, 67 percent of tickets at Caesars are on the Over but 72 percent of money on the Under.

"I don't think it's going to go too much lower barring wacky weather conditions, and there shouldn't be any," said Pullen. "With a lot of these big totals in big games, the sharps like to bet Under and the public likes to bet Over. When you have a total in the mid-50s, you need a lot of things to go right. The sharps just think there's value there with the high total going Under since it's a playoff game and the teams may be tighter. It looks like it's going to be another public vs. sharps battle here. Even with the sharp money, we're still going to need this to go Under."

Should the Bengals upset the AFC top-seeded Titans on Saturday and the Chiefs win Sunday, Kansas City would become the first team in NFL history to host a conference championship game in four straight seasons.

The Bills and Chiefs have each won two of their four all-time postseason meetings and the winner in each has gone on to the Super Bowl: Kansas City in 1966 and 2020 and Buffalo in 1991 and 1993. The Chiefs have won six of their past seven postseason games, with their only loss in Super Bowl LV to Tampa Bay.

No player in NFL history has had five straight playoff games with at least 100 yards receiving, but Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce could accomplish that Sunday as he is tied at four in a row with Larry Fitzgerald and Antonio Brown. Caesars gives Kelce an Over/Under of 70.5 yards. When Kansas City lost 38-20 at home to Buffalo in Week 5, Kelce had 57 yards on six catches. 

Injury-wise, both teams are remarkably healthy for this point of the season. The only relatively key player in question as of this writing is KC running back Darrel Williams (toe), but the Chiefs have Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon there, so Williams might not have gotten many touches. CEH missed the Wild-Card win over Pittsburgh, while Williams barely played after a fumble and McKinnon went off. 

Who wins every NFL game? And which teams will sink your bankroll? Join SportsLine now to get NFL picks every week, all from the model that simulates every game 10,000 times and is up almost $8,000.