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Bengals vs. Steelers NFL Week 16 odds, props: Mason Rudolph likely to start at QB Saturday in Mike Tomlin's potential last home game; Kenny Pickett a possibility

It's a big game in the AFC wild card race Sunday as Cincinnati visits Pittsburgh.

Matt Severance

As of this writing, the Pittsburgh Steelers don't know for certain who their starting quarterback will be for Saturday's must-win home game against Cincinnati in what might be an elimination game for the loser. The plan is to prepare as if third-stringer Mason Rudolph is starting, but the team is leaving the "door ajar" for the rehabbing Kenny Pickett, who is working his way back from surgery. Should the Steelers lose, it's likely that head coach Mike Tomlin's NFL record streak of 16 straight non-losing seasons to begin a career will end. DraftKings favors that to happen, and SportsLine offers odds on Tomlin's future with the team. Pittsburgh is +2 on the SportsLine consensus.

Tomlin fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada following a 13-10 loss in Cleveland in Week 12. Pittsburgh then won in Cincinnati in Week 12 but only managed 16 points and has dropped three straight since without topping 18 points. Overall in the four games without Canada, the Steelers are averaging 14.3 points. Tomlin has nothing to do with the offense – he's a defensive specialist.

Pickett left injured in the first game of that skid, an unthinkable 24-10 home loss to Arizona, and hasn't played since with a foot injury that required surgery. He has not been ruled out yet for Sunday but all signs point to Rudolph making his first start in more than two years. Tomlin announced it would be Rudolph early this week over No. 2 Mitch Trubisky. In two games with Trubisky starting in place of Pickett, the Steelers are averaging 240 yards of offense, down from their season average of 287.1, which ranks 27th in the NFL. Trubisky has thrown three interceptions and two touchdowns in his starts this season.

Rudolph is a fan favorite who has the fourth-longest tenure of any current Steelers player. He has appeared in 18 games and started 10 since he was taken by the team in the third round of the 2018 draft. Rudolph is 5-4-1 as a starter, with his last start coming in Week 10 of the 2021 season. Pittsburgh tied a 0-8 Detroit Lions team at 16. Since the Steelers signed Trubisky as a free agent in 2022, Rudolph has only been active for three games.

"He's just good under tough circumstances, man," Tomlin said of Rudolph. "He is a competitor. He believes in himself. He's a calculated risk-taker. I believe that that mentality is helpful to us under these circumstances."

At 7-7, Pittsburgh sits 10th in the AFC. The SportsLine Projection Model has dropped the Steelers' chances of making the playoffs from 80% before this three-game to 5%. DraftKings lists the Steelers at +900 to make it, which equates to 10%, and -1800 to not (94.7%). DK doesn't have official odds on whether the Steelers will finish with a losing record, but they are set at over/under 8.5 wins and the Under is a massive -225 favorite.

Sunday is the team's home finale and could be Tomlin's as well. There is chatter he could decide to retire or force his way out if the Steelers miss out on playoff football again. He hasn't led the team to a playoff win since 2016. The franchise simply doesn't fire head coaches – Tomlin is +700 at BetOnline to be the next head coach fired. Tomlin's contract only runs through 2024, and he would be hugely in demand with all the TV networks that cover the NFL. Other teams would covet him as well.

The Steelers will catch a break Sunday in that Bengals All-Pro wideout Ja'Marr Chase (93 catches, 1,156 yards, seven TDs) is likely out with a shoulder injury suffered in last Saturday's big overtime comeback win over Minnesota.

The Bengals have won three in a row to get to 8-6 and sit sixth in the AFC. They are +200 to make the playoffs and -250 to miss out. Cincinnati still has to visit Kansas City in Week 17 and host another playoff-hopeful in Cleveland in Week 18. The Bengals are 0-4 straight up and against the spread in AFC North games this year and 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in non-divisional games.

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Will Mike Tomlin be the Steelers' coach Week 1 of the 2024 season?

  • Yes -130
  • No +100

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