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2023 NFL Draft prop line movement: Hendon Hooker to Raiders trending up, plus more odds-related news

The betting market has been an early indicator of NFL Draft news in recent years, so let's take a look at the latest movement.

R.J. White

In our dive into NFL Draft props line movement on Monday, we highlighted the growing possibility that the Texans would pass on a quarterback at No. 2 in favor of Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson, which I projected in last Friday's mock draft. That link has grown in the betting market over the last 48 hours, with Anderson moving into favorite position to be selected No. 2 overall, though he remains at +200 in the prop. Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud has dropped from +150 to +250, where he sits tied with another quarterback, Kentucky's Will Levis. While Levis has been a divisive evaluation in the NFL Draft media sphere, he seems to have a very real shot to be the second quarterback taken, as his +250 odds to go No. 2 overall is a massive drop from where he sat on Monday at +850.

Last year, I delivered a top-five mock draft (out of 32 experts, including the biggest names in NFL Draft media) in part by focusing on what the betting-market trends were saying. This year, I'm going to provide you regular updates on what's happening in one betting market so you can be ahead of the curve as well. I'm focusing on the FanDuel lines, as those are the easiest for me to pull data from regularly for my draft workbook.

Raiders emerge as Hendon Hooker landing spot

A recent NFL Draft rumor that Tennessee's Hendon Hooker is the third quarterback on the Raiders' board has shaken up the odds on the team to land the Volunteers quarterback. On Monday, the Raiders were tied for the eighth-shortest odds to land Hooker at +1600, but as of midday Wednesday they're now second at +600 behind only the Vikings (+500), who end up landing Hooker in the first round of CBS Sports NFL Insider Jonathan Jones' mock draft.

The Raiders signed Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason, but his contract is structured in a way so that they can part ways with the former 49ers quarterback next offseason if they so choose. While Hooker's age and knee injury could give pause to a team using its first draft pick on the prospect, a team like the Raiders circling back with their second pick, potentially in a trade back into the first round, could be easier to swallow.

Also noteworthy: The total quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 prop at Caesars had long been heavily juiced to Under 4.5, but as of Wednesday we're seeing Under 4.5 at just -120, with Over 4.5 at -110, making the chances of a fifth quarterback being selected in the first round a virtual coin flip.

Nolan Smith a top-10 pick?

In our last look at line movement news, we linked the Falcons to Texas running back Bijan Robinson, who showed up as the favorite to be the eighth overall selection at +250 once FanDuel released that market. Robinson's price hasn't budged, but now he's the co-favorite to go eighth along with Georgia edge rusher Nolan Smith.

That movement is likely a reaction to several NFL insiders sending Smith to the Falcons in their recent mock drafts, a group that includes ESPN's Mel Kiper, NFL.com's Peter Schrager and The Athletic's Dane Brugler. While many analysts have Iowa's Lukas Van Ness ranked as the third-best edge rusher, it's definitely worth identifying the smoke when several connected analysts connect a prospect to a team out of his expected range.

What could make the most sense for Atlanta is figuring out a trade down a few spots, especially if one of the top four QBs are still on the board at No. 8, before taking Smith at No. 11 or 12.

Michael Mayer takes lead at tight end

We talked on Monday about the market for the first tight end drafted tightening, with Utah's Dalton Kincaid moving from -200 to -175 as Notre Dame's Michael Mayer shifted from +175 to +150. That momentum has snowballed to the point it's now Mayer who's favored to be the first tight end drafted at -125 with Kincaid at +100.

What's contributed to the move? It's likely strong linkage of Mayer to the Cowboys, with Brugler saying in his latest mock he had a source relay that he doesn't see Dallas passing on him. Many have previously connected Kincaid to the Cowboys in mock drafts, and they appear to be the first realistic team to draft the position in the 20s.

The Mayer-to-Dallas rumors have also dropped the odds for other tight ends to go first at the position, most notably with Georgia's Darnell Washington moving from +700 to +1200.

Rams eyeing receiver?

The team to draft Quentin Johnston prop revealed some interesting movement this week. The top of the board for the prop has only moved slightly, with the Vikings the favorites and Giants next at +600. But with the trade of Allen Robinson, the Rams (who don't have a first-round pick) have shot up as a contender for Johnston, moving from +5000 on Monday to tied for the third-shortest odds at +1000 on Wednesday.

It's anyone's guess the order the receivers will be drafted, and there's at least a decent chance Johnston makes it to the Rams at No. 36. If the Rams want to explore a trade into the first round, their top two picks (No. 36 and 69) should be enough to get them to No. 23 overall, according to our draft pick trade value chart.

More NFL Draft line movement news

  • No. 1 overall pick: Bryce Young moved -400 on Monday to -1400 on Tuesday but gave a little of that back as of Wednesday, where he sits at -1200. The Panthers are expected to finalize their draft plans at the top in the next few days.
  • No. 2 overall pick: We mentioned at the top that Will Anderson is now the favorite to go No. 2 at +200, with C.J. Stroud and Will Levis both at +250. But don't overlook the prospect with the fourth shortest odds here either, as Tyree Wilson has moved from +950 on Monday to +400 on Wednesday. This may just be a reflection on the market fading the Texans going for a QB, but it's too early to write off a complete curveball with Wilson at No. 2.
  • No. 3 overall pick: Anthony Richardson was the +110 favorite to go third on Friday before moving to the +175 favorite on Monday. But on Wednesday, Richardson, Stroud and Anderson are all co-favorites at +250. It's going to be hard to nail down whether this is a QB before the draft starts, as any team trading to No. 3 has to be very confident they know what Houston will do at No. 2.
  • No. 4 overall pick: Will Levis has dropped from +100 to +150, but that price is likely mostly tied to the increase in chances the Texans take him at No. 2, as the Colts still seem like a clear landing spot for the Kentucky product if he's available. C.J. Stroud now has the second-shortest odds at +250, down from +700 on Monday, a reflection of his perceived declining stock.
  • First OL drafted: Ohio State's Paris Johnson Jr. has completed his fly-by of Northwestern's Peter Skoronski in this prop, with Johnson now the -110 favorite to be the first O-lineman drafted and Skoronski all the way down at +150. On Friday, Skoronski was the -110 favorite with Johnson at +115, while the two were tied at the top on Monday.

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