2022 NFL win totals, odds: Bills, Bucs, Packers top league at 11.5 victories, Texans fewest at 4.5

With most of the top NFL free agents off the market and the quarterback musical chairs likely over other than Baker Mayfield, Caesars Sportsbook in a nice surprise released 2022 NFL win totals today. To no surprise, the Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Bucs are set with the highest Over/Under at 11.5 wins, while the Houston Texans have the lowest at 4.5.

Last year, the Chiefs opened with the highest win total on the board at 12 in the new 17-game regular-season. Kansas City pushed on that number and is set at 10.5 this year, a number that dropped no doubt because of the Tyreek Hill trade.

The Packers and Bucs tied for the NFL lead with 13 wins in 2021 and were able to convince their Hall of Fame quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, to return for at least one more year – although Green Bay lost All-Pro receiver Davante Adams and Tampa Bay now has a new head coach.

"The league is so balanced right now that it's hard to put up a win total of 12," said Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. The parity's there, there's so many good teams out there. We saw it last year with the Bengals coming out of nowhere to make it to the Super Bowl. Even with the extra game, it's hard to see a team that's going to win 13 or 14 games. With all the player movement, it lends itself to more uncertainty and just more balance. So it's not a surprise the highest win total is 11.5, it just shows how deep the league is."

Buffalo is the +700 favorite at Caesars to win Super Bowl 57 after adding the likes of receiver Jamison Crowder, tight end OJ Howard and pass-rusher Von Miller to an already-stacked roster led by MVP favorite Josh Allen.

Tennessee tied for the AFC lead last year with 12 wins despite missing Derrick Henry for about half the season but is set at just 9.5 for 2022. Defending AFC champion Cincinnati is also at 9.5 after winning 10 in 2021. That number is a tad surprising considering how much the Bengals improved their offensive line this offseason (although the Over is favored). Baltimore and Cleveland are also at 9.5 in the AFC North – how many games will Deshaun Watson even play this year for the Browns?

"A lot of people could be thinking that there may be a bounce factor coming with the Bengals," Pullen said. "Then there's the Ravens, with the Lamar Jackson injury this wasn't their true team down the stretch and they lost a lot of close games. I think they're viewed as equals to the Bengals even though they didn't make the playoffs last year. You also have an improved Browns team on paper. If [Deshaun] Watson gets suspended, they still have [Baker] Mayfield in the fold for now and he's serviceable. It's no guarantee Watson will step in and be like he was before immediately either. The Bengals are still favored to win 10 games, so it's not like they're being disrespected. They're not that far off from the highest win totals, but they have a tough division."

Houston won four games last season, which was considered by many an overachievement, yet the Texans fired coach David Culley and replaced him with defensive coordinator Lovie Smith in a puzzling move. Houston didn't want Mayfield in the Watson trade to Cleveland but loaded up on draft picks.

The fewest wins by any 2021 team: 3 by the Jaguars (6.5 this year) and Lions (6.5). 

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