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Suns vs. Nuggets Tuesday NBA playoffs Game 5 trends, odds: Huge spread lean on Denver, bettors expect another 30-point game from Devin Booker

Denver hosts Phoenix in Game 5 of the West semifinals tonight.

Matt Severance

The lone NBA conference semifinal series in which the home team has yet to lose continues Tuesday as Phoenix visits Denver for Game 5 with star point guard Chris Paul once again sidelined for the Suns. The Nuggets opened at -3.5 at BetMGM but are up to -6.5 with heavy action, but bettors still expect Devin Booker to keep raining points for Phoenix. Click here for model picks. 

As of this writing, 78% of the bets and 77% of the money are on the Nuggets against the spread. Denver hasn't lost at home this postseason and is 4-1 against the spread. The total has dropped from an open of 228.5 to 227.5, with 55% of the bets and 52% of the money on the Over. Phoenix, +180 on the money line, is taking 66% of the bets and 48% of the money.

Paul injured his groin late in the third quarter of Game 2. The Suns lost that game in Denver to fall to 0-2 in the series, but won the next two at home with Cameron Payne starting in Paul's spot. Payne will presumably be the starter again Tuesday. Payne averaged 6.0 points and 5.0 assists per game in the two meetings in Phoenix, while the Suns averaged 124.5 points per game. 

The Suns did try and push the tempo more than they usually do with the aging Paul in the lineup. In Game 1 and Game 2 in Denver, Phoenix's pace was 95.25 and they registered 190 possessions. They averaged 97 points and had an offensive rating of 102.1 In Games 3 and Game 4, their pace rose to 98.28 and they generated 196 possessions. The Suns totaled 34 fast-break points in Games 1 and 2. In Games 3 and 4, they had 43.

"I feel like it's picked up a lot, but even when I'm off the court now, it's like, sometimes when you see something, you kind of replicate it," Payne said after Monday's practice. "I feel like it's been very beneficial for us. Working them in transition instead of coming down and trying to play half-court offense all the time."

Booker shot spectacularly well in the two games Paul missed, going 34-for-43 (79.1%). That's the highest field-goal percentage in a two-game span in postseason history by a player 6-foot-5 or shorter (minimum 25 attempts). Booker has six 35-point games already this postseason. Since the playoffs expanded to four rounds for all teams in 1983-84, only Michael Jordan (1989, 1990) and Bernard King (1984) have more 35-point efforts in the first two rounds in a postseason.

Booker Over 31.5 points at -125 is among the most-wagered player props Tuesday, along with Nikola Jokic Over 39.5 combined points and assists (-115) and Jamal Murray Over 25.5 points (-115).

Jokic comes off a 53-point effort in Game 4, the most in a regulation loss in playoff history. Jokic scored or assisted on 78 points, the most in a playoff game by a center in NBA history. Murray has topped 25.5 points in three of the four games in the series. 

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