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2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year odds: Spurs' Victor Wembanyama solid favorite as expected, Thunder 2022 first-rounder Chet Holmgren eligible for award

Victor Wembanyama was drafted No. 1 overall by San Antonio on Thursday night.

Matt Severance

The 2023 NBA Draft was about the least exciting in years at least in terms of what would happen at the top, as we'd known for years thatFrench 7-foot-5 super-prospect Victor Wembanyama would be taken No. 1 overall, and the San Antonio Spurs did just that Thursday. To no surprise, Wembanyama is the -225 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook for Rookie of the Year. But don't forget about Oklahoma City's Chet Holmgren, who is +375.

Wembanyama couldn't have landed in a better spot. The Spurs are as well-run as any franchise in the NBA, and have maybe the best coach in league history in Hall of Famer Gregg Popovich, who happens to know a thing or two about guiding young big men taken No. 1 overall in the draft.

The first time San Antonio had the top pick, it selected David Robinson out of Navy in 1987. He won Rookie of the Year and eventually became a Hall of Famer. The second time San Antonio had the pick, it selected Tim Duncan out of Wake Forest in 1997. Duncan too won Rookie of the Year and became a Hall of Famer. Both won multiple NBA titles.

Wembanyama was the MVP of France's LNB Pro A league this season, although his Metropolitans 92 team lost in the French League Finals to Monaco. In 34 regular-season games, Wembanyama led the league in scoring (21.6 points per game) and blocks (3.0 per game) while adding 10.4 rebounds and 2.4 assists.

He is given over/under totals this year of 17.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 2.5 blocks. There's also a yes-only special at +170 that he averages at least 20 points and 10 rebounds per game. That he averages at least 20 points and 2.0 blocks (that seems likely) is +210. There are some Wemby parlays with the Spurs winning the West, but they aren't doing that in 2023-24 so don't waste your money. Simply making the play-in tournament would be a success. 

For a point of comparison, Paolo Banchero went No. 1 overall last year to Orlando and won ROY. He averaged 20.0 points, 6.9 rebounds and 0.5 blocks and was nowhere near as hyped a prospect. Wembanyama is +13000 to win MVP, same price as All-Stars such as Dejounte Murray (Hawks) and new Celtic Kristaps Porzingis. 

Win totals aren't out yet at the sportsbooks – they should be available soon – but DraftKings gives the Spurs a yes-only price of +200 for at least 35 wins and +650 for at least 40. San Antonio was 22-60 in 2022-23 but obviously was tanking. Wembanyama is the first No. 1 pick without a college background since 2006 and the sixth all-time (three worked out great, two not so much):

  • 2006 Andrea Bargnani (Italy)
  • 2004 Dwight Howard (HS)
  • 2003 LeBron James (HS)
  • 2002 Yao Ming (China)
  • 2001 Kwame Brown (HS)

G League guard Scoot Henderson, who went third to Portland, is a +350 second favorite for Rookie of the Year, followed by the Thunder's Holmgren at +375. The former Gonzaga star Holmgren is similar to Wembanyama in many facets, including body type (both must bulk up) and was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2022 draft. Holmgren showed signs of stardom in a brief 2022 Summer League stint before suffering a season-ending injury in an exhibition game.

Because Holmgren never took the court in an NBA regular-season game, he's still a rookie in the league's eyes, as was the case with Robinson and Blake Griffin. Robninson didn't play until a year after he was drafted because he was fulfilling his service requirements, and Griffin was the 2010-11 ROY with the Clippers after being chosen No. 1 overall in 2009 out of Oklahoma. Griffin missed what would have been his rookie year with an injury.

The last NBA ROY to not play college basketball was Charlotte's LaMelo Ball in 2021. He spent one year playing for the professional Illawarra Hawks in Australia before being drafted. Before playing in the NBL, Ball had been projected as a possible second-round pick but went No. 3 overall.

The 2023-24 NBA schedule should be out in August. Would the league dare put the Spurs in the marquee Opening Night national TV window against Denver, the reigning champion? I highly doubt it, although I wouldn't be surprised if the Spurs' opener (presumably the next night) is on national TV. Everyone wants to see Wembanyama, who says he will play in Summer League. 

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