SportsLine badge

Royals vs. Guardians Thursday MLB probable pitchers, odds: Jordan Lyles, most reliable fade this season, to start in Cleveland

Kansas City's Jordan Lyles takes the mound in Cleveland.

Matt Severance

We had a habit of previewing every Kansas City Royals game that Jordan Lyles started this season, because he was the biggest money-losing pitcher in the majors, until Lyles was sidelined. Lyles still is at an MLB-worst -$1300 in his 16 starts but actually has a chance to win a second in a row tonight in Cleveland, although the Guardians are -210 at Caesars Sportsbook.

No other starting pitcher in the Show has lost more than -$964 this year. Last time out on June 24, Lyles and the Royals were +205 underdogs at Tampa Bay but won 9-4, as Lyles improved to 1-11 with a 6.68 ERA by allowing four earned runs and eight hits over six innings. Lyles retired his final eight batters to end a personal 15-game winless streak, winning for the first time since his final start last year on Sept. 30 while playing for the Baltimore Orioles.

Lyles, who leads the majors in losses and has the worst ERA of any qualified starter, hasn't pitched since then due to an illness. He is seeking his first consecutive wins since he won three straight games for Baltimore last year, from July 28-Aug. 8. Lyles is 2-1 with a 4.67 ERA in three career starts spanning 17.1 innings against Cleveland. Lyles has won his past two against the Guardians, holding them to one run across 13.2 innings after allowing eight runs over 3.2 innings in his first appearance against them.

He is +240 to personally win tonight and -340 to not. Lyles' over/under totals are: 3.5 strikeouts (about a low as you will see), 6.5 hits allowed, 1.5 walks and 2.5 earned runs. Lyles has allowed at least three earned in 14 of 16 starts.

The Royals enter on a three-game skid, losing each game in Minnesota by at least four runs. They also lost two of three at home vs. Cleveland from June 27-29, but Lyles didn't pitch in that series. Guardians rookie Tanner Bibee (5-2, 3.46 ERA), Thursday's projected starter, didn't either. He comes off 5.2 shutout innings against the Cubs on July 1 with a career-high-tying nine strikeouts. He's been much better at home with a 2.38 ERA in six outings.

Bibee is +140 to win tonight and -190 to not. That he allows the first earned run is a -125 favorite compared to Lyles doing so (+100), because Kansas City bats first. Cleveland slugger Josh Naylor (.295, 10 HR, 60 RBI, 31 R) has missed the past two with a wrist injury and is day-to-day. He's 1-for-4 off Lyles. 

Get more out of your SportsLine subscription! 

Qualifying SportsLine members receive a 30-day free trial of Paramount+ premium. Sync your account right here.