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Rangers vs. Astros Monday ALCS Game 7 probable pitchers, odds, trends: Mixed betting action in first winner-take-all game of 2023 postseason

Texas visits Houston in Game 7 of the ALCS.

Matt Severance

Just one best-of-seven playoff series in MLB history has seen the road team win all seven games. That was the 2019 World Series, which the Houston Astros lost to the Washington Nationals despite home-field advantage. That's the same spot the Astros are in Monday night at Minute Maid Park for Game 7 of the ALCS against the Texas Rangers, who have yet to lose on the road in the 2023 postseason (7-0). Click here for model picks.

At BetMGM, Houston is a -125 favorite and taking 62% of the money but 48% of the bets. The total opened at 9.5 (where I grabbed it) and has dropped to 9 with 63% of the bets and 55% of the money on the Under. Texas at +1.5 (-190) on the run line is taking 40% of the bets and 42% of the money. The splits at DraftKings are essentially the same, but there is heavy action on the first-inning run prop with 87% of the handle and 83% of the bets on Under 0.5 runs in the first.

Teams to score first in these playoffs are 24-9 and teams that out-homer opponents are 19-3. A total of 52.1% of all postseason runs so far have been scored by homer, up from 41% in the regular season. If the Astros win, they will become the 15th team all time to win a best-of-seven series after trailing 2-0 and just the fifth team to do so in a best-of-seven LCS series. Teams are 0-21 in best-of-seven LCS history when losing the first two games at home, as Houston did.

One might think playing at home would be a huge advantage in a matchup like this, but clubs playing in home ballparks are only 62-63 all-time in winner-take-all postseason games, including 30-27 in a best-of-seven series. Houston enters having lost four straight home games and with a 7-21 record at Minute Maid Park since Aug. 13. Overall, the Astros are 40-46 at home this year. No team has reached the World Series with a losing home record.

Right-hander Cristian Javier gets the start for the Astros. He is 4-0 with a 0.82 ERA in four career playoff starts spanning 22.2 innings and 2-0 with 1.69 ERA this year. Javier is making his first career start in an elimination game but has a 10.38 ERA in three relief appearances in them. He is set at over/under 2.5 earned runs, 4.5 strikeouts and 12.5 outs recorded. He's +700 to get a win.

Texas slugger Adolis Garcia hit a grand slam in Game 6 and has homered in three straight games. Garcia is 2-for-19 in the regular season off Javier with six strikeouts. Garcia is just +190 to homer tonight, easily the shortest number for any player.

Three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer was not sharp in his first start for the Rangers in more than a month (shoulder) in Game 3, allowing five runs in four innings. He is now 0-2 with a 15.43 ERA in his past two vs. Houston. Scherzer is 0-0 with a 3.10 ERA in four career winner-take-all postseason starts and his teams are 3-1 in them. He is set at O/U 1.5 earned runs, 4.5 strikeouts, and 13.5 outs recorded. He's +275 for a win.

Red-hot Yordan Alvarez is 4-for-8 with a homer off Scherzer and enters with five straight playoff games of at least two hits, tied for the longest streak in a single playoffs in MLB history. He is -185 for Over 0.5 hits.

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