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Diamondbacks vs. Rangers World Series Game 1 odds, trends, props: Mixed betting action on Fall Classic, Adolis Garcia as MVP favorite

Arizona visits Texas in Game 1 of the 2023 World Series.

Matt Severance

Two seasons ago, the Arizona Diamondbacks lost 110 games, tied for the most in MLB, and the Texas Rangers lost 102. Now they face each other in one of the most unlikely World Series matchups in history. Both were Wild Card teams this postseason and won the final two games of their League Championship Series on the road to overcome a 3-2 deficit. The Diamondbacks won the regular-season series 3-1, but the Rangers had the better overall record and host Game 1 on Friday night. Click here for model picks.

It's only the third World Series matchup between a pair of Wild Card teams and features the fewest combined wins (174) all-time in a Fall Classic. The Rangers won 90 games and Diamondbacks won 84. They are the fifth and sixth teams in MLB history to reach the World Series within two years of losing at least 100 games.

At DraftKings, the Rangers are -166 favorites for the opener and taking a slight lean in both handle and tickets. On the total of 8 runs, about 60% of the handle and bets are on the Over. At -1.5 (+124) on the run line, Texas is taking 85% of the money and 60% of the bets.

Frankly, being at home might be the worst thing for the Rangers as they are an astonishing 8-0 on the road in the 2023 playoffs, tying the longest road winning streak in a single postseason with the 1996 Yankees and 2019 Nationals. Only those Yankees also won their first eight road games. The road team won every game in the Rangers-Astros ALCS, just the second best-of-seven series all-time to have the road team win every game. The other was the 2019 World Series, when the aforementioned Nats beat the Astros -- the same team Texas beat.

Texas outfielder Adolis Garcia was the ALCS MVP, and he nearly single-handedly beat Houston in Game 7 with two homers, four hits, five RBI and three runs scored. The hits and RBI tied a franchise playoff record. Garcia has hit safely in 11 of 12 playoff games, has homered in four straight and had an RBI in six in a row. He became the first player ever with a six-game RBI streak in the same series. The overall record is eight in a row by the Phillies' Ryan Howard in 2009. Former Met Daniel Murphy holds the record with six straight playoff games with a homer.

Garcia is +255 to go yard Friday and is the +500 favorite to win World Series MVP – the Rangers have never had one because they have never won a Fall Classic. That the Phillies were eliminated in seven games by Arizona was great for most books in terms of World Series MVP futures, as Philadelphia's Bryce Harper was taking by far the most action to win it. Teammate Trea Turner was taking the third-most action at BetMGM.

In regular-season action, Garcia is 0-for-5 off Arizona Game 1 starter Zac Gallen. He'll get some Cy Young Award votes and likely finish second or third after posting a 17-9 record, 3.47 ERA and 220 strikeouts in the regular season. Might Gallen be tired after throwing by far a career high in innings pitched? In these playoffs, he has a 5.24 ERA and 2-2 record. Three of his four games were on the road, where Gallen was 5-6 with a 4.42 ERA during the year and was 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two outings vs. Texas. He's set at over/under 2.5 earned runs, 4.5 strikeouts and 15.5 outs. Gallen is +300 for a win.

In the NLCS, Arizona became the seventh team in MLB postseason history to lose both Games 1 and 2 on the road in a best-of-seven series and battle back to eventually advnace. The 2004 Red Sox, who memorably trailed the Yankees 3-0 in that year's ALCS, were the last to do it.

Ketel Marte was the NLCS MVP after hitting .387 (12-for-31) with four extra-base hits and three RBI. Marte has now played 16 career playoff games and has a hit in all of them. That's a record. The longest overall hit streak in a postseason is 17 by three players, including Derek Jeter. Marte and likely NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll are both +1000 for World Series MVP.

Carroll had taken the second-most action between Harper and Turner, so BetMGM will not be rooting for him to win MVP. At DraftKings, Marte is taking a whopping 45% of bets for MVP but is only fourth in money. with Garcia first at 17% and Carroll second at 16%.

Nathan Eovaldi will start Game 1 for Texas. The big right-hander struggled in September but has flipped switch in the playoffs. In the postseason, he's 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA and is now  8-1 with a 2.59 ERA in 10 career playoff starts. Eovaldi is 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA in five starts vs. the Diamondbacks, but hasn't faced them since 2016 while with the Yankees. He is set at O/U 1.5 earned runs, 15.5 outs recorded and 5.5 strikeouts. Eovaldi is +165 for a win. 

Here are the SportsLine Projection Model sims for the series.

SERIES         ODDS   ODDS%  SIM%     VALUE
TEXAS-18564.90%65.30%0.40%
ARIZONA15539.20%34.70%-4.50%
 
 
 
 
 
TEXASODDSODDS%SIM%VALUE
WINS 4-342019.20%17.70%-1.50%
WINS 4-237521.10%20.90%-0.20%
WINS 4-150016.70%16.60%-0.10%
WINS 4-09509.50%10.10%0.60%
 
 
 
 
 
ARIZONAODDSODDS%SIM%VALUE
WINS 4-357514.80%12.20%-2.60%
WINS 4-262513.80%10.70%-3.10%
WINS 4-175011.80%8.30%-3.50%
WINS 4-017005.60%3.50%-2.10%

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