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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Monday NLCS Game 6 probable pitchers, odds, props: Heavy action on Philadelphia, Aaron Nola to end series

Arizona is down 3-2 entering Game 6 of the NLCS this afternoon in Philadelphia.

Matt Severance

The best home-field advantage in Major League Baseball right now -- if not all of entire American sports -- belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies, who have had unparalleled postseason success at Citizens Bank Park. They can advance to their second straight World Series with a win over the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 6 of the NLCS on Monday afternoon, and the betting lean is heavy on the Phillies behind Aaron Nola. Click here for model picks.

At DraftKings, Philadelphia is up to -192 on the money line and taking 92% of the handle and 80% of the bets, the biggest ML lean of any game this series. On the total of 8 runs, 93% of the the handle is on the Under, but 55% of the bets are on the Over. Philadelphia at -1.5 on the run line is taking more than 90% of the handle and tickets.

The Phillies are 6-0 at home this postseason, outscoring opponents 39-8. They have won 11 playoff games in a row at home against NL teams. That's the longest such streak by either an NL or AL team vs. its own league in MLB history. Overall, the Phillies are 28-11 (.718) in the playoffs all time at Citizens Bank Park, the best record by any  MLB club at one venue.

Philadelphia is also 8-0 in Nola's past eight home starts dating to the regular season. He beat Arizona at CBP in Game 2 with six shutout innings. Nola tallied seven strikeouts and allowed just three hits and zero walks. Nola is 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA in this postseason, the lowest ERA by a Philadelphia pitcher in a single postseason all-time with a minimum of 15 innings pitched. He is set at over/under 1.5 earned runs, 3.5 hits and 16.5 outs recorded. He's +150 for a win.

Not many Diamondbacks have good career splits off Nola, but Ketel Marte is 3-for-9 with a double and homer in the regular season. Marte enters on a 14-game playoff hitting streak, the longest active streak in the majors. Marte is batting .383 with three homers and seven RBI in that run.

Arizona's Merrill Kelly is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts this postseason. He took the loss in Game 2, allowing four earned runs and three homers (a season high) over 5.2 innings. Kelly has a 5.68 ERA in his past seven road starts, including the playoffs. Kelly is set at O/U 2.5 earned runs, 4.5 hits, 15.5 outs recorded and +330 for a win.

Kyle Schwarber enters having homered in back-to-back games, and his five dingers are tied for the most in any LCS in MLB history. Schwarber's 20 career LCS homers are tied for the fourth-most ever with Derek Jeter. Schwarber has hit 11 of those with the Phillies, which has tied the franchise record. He is 3-for-10 off Kelly with two homers in the regular season.

In all best-of-seven postseason series, teams that have won Game 6 to force a Game 7 have come out on top in that winner-take-all contest 33 of 59 times (56%), but Philadelphia is -750 on the series line and taking 94% of the money. With Houston being forced into a Game 7 on Monday, the Phillies also are the new favorites to win the World Series at +130. 

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