2023 MLB home run leader odds: Yankees' Aaron Judge clear favorite to repeat, taking huge action at sportsbook

It's probably unrealistic for the New York Yankees to expect superstar Aaron Judge to replicate his 2022 season when he set the American League record with 62 home runs, leading the majors by a whopping 16 over second-place Kyle Schwarber. Judge is the +550 favorite at BetMGM, though, to repeat as MLB home run leader and is taking heavy action to do so.

Judge's 16-homer gap was the largest to lead the majors in a single season since Philadelphia's Jimmie Fox led in 1932 by 17 homers. Judge led the AL in dingers by 22, the largest gap by any AL player since Babe Ruth led by 27 in 1928. Judge was just the fourth MLB player to reach 62, joining Barry Bonds (2001), Mark McGwire (1998-99) and Sammy Sosa (1998-99 and 2001).

As of this writing, Judge leads in money wagered on this prop at 18% and in tickets sold at 12% at BetMGM. He was the first Yankee to lead the majors in homers since Luke Voit did with 22 in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. The last time a Yankee led in homers in a full season was Alex Rodriguez with 54 in 2007.

Judge was equally good at Yankee Stadium and away, hitting 30 homers in 289 home at-bats and 32 in 281 road at-bats. He hit two homers in nine playoff games but batted only .139 overall as New York was swept in the ALCS by Houston. This spring, Judge had two homers in 16 games.

Depending on whom you believe, Judge was close to leaving in free agency for his hometown San Francisco Giants this winter but opted to stay in New York when the Yankees raised their offer to nine years and $360 million. Judge is given an over/under of 45.5 homers this year. Recent history says that won't be enough to lead the majors. SportsLine's Ariel Cohen has Judge hitting 42 bombs. 

New York opens the season at home vs. San Francisco on Thursday. Judge hasn't faced Giants starter Logan Webb in a regular-season game. The Mets' Pete Alonso is a +900 second favorite to be the home run leader, with Schwarber at +1000.

So which 2023 Fantasy baseball busts, breakouts, and sleepers should you target or fade in your drafts? Visit SportsLine's Fantasy baseball cheat sheets now to get rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Joey Votto's disappointing season, and find out.