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Big 12 expansion odds: Arizona favored over Arizona State, Utah, UConn to follow Colorado to new league, potentially for 2024 college football season

The Big 12 has voted to bring back Colorado.

Matt Severance

Another wave of realignment to the power conferences in college football and basketball could be coming soon on the heels of the Big 12 presidents voting unanimously to accept former member Colorado back into the league in time for the 2024 football season, and the Buffaloes reportedly will leave the Pac-12 and accept. SportsLine offers odds on the next school to join the Big 12.

A Colorado departure from the Pac-12 could be finalized as early as today even though the Buffaloes haven't formally applied. It can basically do so with an email. A second Colorado Board of Regents meeting is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET, and that's when the official application may be filed. Colorado leaving would coincide with the end of the Pac-12 television deal, meaning CU would not have to pay any exit fee to the league (similar to a player being a free agent). Neither would any other Pac-12 team that leaves, at least currently – a TV deal could be announced any day.

Colorado was a founding member of the Big 12 in 1996 and remained in the conference until it departed for the Pac-12 ahead of the 2011 season. Football-wise, that proved a disastrous move as the Buffaloes have largely been rendered irrelevant. They Buffaloes have had just one winning season since. The football team does have major buzz now, though, with Deion Sanders running the show. The men's basketball team has been solid.

The Big 12 currently has 14 members with the additions this season of BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and Central Florida. That would drop to 13 next season with the losses of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC and the addition of Colorado. For obvious reasons, the league would want an even number of teams so it could try to add three instead of one, but for our purposes the odds correspond the next school to officially accept.

While Utah might bring a better football program than Arizona would, the Wildcats in theory bring the Phoenix TV market and one of the top basketball programs in the country -- and Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark has made it no secret that he wants his league to be leaps and bounds better than all the others in men's hoops. The Arizona football program might actually be on the rise as well under Jedd Fisch -- he has recruited quite well.

According to ESPN's Pete Thamel and the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Arizona has been the more engaged and more closely targeted school than Utah and Arizona State. Arizona president Bobby Robbins has said no decisions will be made until there's clarity on the Pac-12's television deal, but Colorado bolting could change the dynamic. If Arizona leaves for the Big 12, ASU almost surely will eventually do so as well.

Gonzaga doesn't have a football program but obviously is a blue-blood in men's basketball like UConn. Would the defending national champion Huskies really leave a basketball-only Big East made up of their peers? The school's previous move to the American was a bust for football (basketball wasn't as good, either) and UConn is an independent in that sport. The program would help the Big 12 stretch its East Coast reach.

Perhaps Yormark ideally adds all "Four Corners" schools of Arizona, ASU, Utah and Colorado, but he also might want to wait and see if the ACC implodes and the likes of Clemson, Florida State or Miami become available – which is not out of the question. The Big Ten (Virginia, UNC) is also ready to pounce on the ACC. Yormark confirmed at Big 12 Media Days earlier this month that he would prefer to remain at 14 teams for the immediate future, however.

San Diego State brings the southern California TV market, but the Aztecs just tied themselves to the Mountain West for two more years and have been linked with the Pac-12, unless that league simply dies outright or merges with the MW. There hasn't been much talk of SDSU to the Big 12. Memphis is likely the best overall program left in the AAC.  

If all planned realignments happen, the Pac-12 now would have just nine teams in the 2024 season, while all other Power 5 conferences would have at least 13. We'll address the Pac-12 future at a later date. 

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Which school will be the next to accept an invite to the Big 12?

  • Arizona +300
  • Arizona State +400
  • Utah +600
  • UConn +700
  • Gonzaga +1200
  • San Diego State +1500
  • Memphis +2000

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