Alex's Picks (5 Live)
Alex's Past Picks
Jared Jones has proven to be one of the MLB truly elite young arms and at age 22 is already proving why the Pirates have a very bright future. Jones has been held under this line in only 3 of his 8 starts on the season, however the Pirates are careful with him and he has only eclipsed 90 pitches twice. He is facing a Cubs offense that not only rank in the top 10 in OPS over the last 2 weeks, but that Jones has also faced in his previous start. Considering the pirates reluctance to over extend Jones and the fact that the Cubs just faced him, I believe 6 IP is a tall order.
Jose Quintana's numbers do not look good and his underlying metrics paint a very worrisome picture. On the surface, Quintana has failed to throw 5 Ks in a single start this season. However if we look under the proverbial hood, I would argue hes actually run a bit hit in the stirkeout department. Quintana possesses a dismal 6.9% SwStr% and his 84.1% contact rate are both career worst marks. He will face a Phillies lineup who hes struggled against historically.
I'm looking to fade PJ Washington despite him scoring 20+ points in three consecutive games. While I believe he is a regression candidate as I do not buy that Washingto has suddenly emerged as a 20 PPG scorer, he has a green light offensively and is playing big minutes, while clearly benefiting from the defensive attention Luka and Kyrie command. Meanwhile we're getting a big RA line here as Washington averaged a combined 7.7 RA in the regular season. Washington has been the second leading rebounder in this series vs OKC and I do not believe that is sustainable.
Chet stepped up in Game 4 and provided OKC with a secondary scoring punch that they needed in order to even what has been a very competitive series. Chet logged 40 minutes in Game 4 which were the most minutes he has played in the playoffs. I expect him to receive similar PT/heavy minutes again tonight barring foul trouble. If we look at the rebound distributions in this series, I would offer that Chet is running cold and with the likelihood of him getting a significant bump in playing time, coupled with a RA line that he averages despite playing fewer than 30 MPG, this line looks much closer to his floor.
Framber Valdez is having another solid season for the Houston Astros and it is impressive how consistent his numbers are, in addition to this strikeout metrics. However I believe this number is 1K too high and the Athletics are no longer the pushover that theyve beenin recent seasons. Oakland possesses the 9th highest K rate versus lefties, in addition to ranking 16th in OPS against opposing southpaws, which is a marked improvement compared to last season.
Javier Assad's transition from a reliever to a starter has largely been a success, however his counting stats do not tell the full story. For starters, Assad has struggled when facing the order for the third time as opposing hitters have a slash line of 391/444/696. As a result Assad is on a fairly short leash and has failed to go deeper than 5 IP in half of his starts this season. Assad will be facing a Braves lineup that is still one of the most potent lineups and possesses the fifth highest OPS in the league this season.
This is just a gigantic combo line for Jayson Tatum who has failed to eclipse this RA number in 6 of 9 playoff games. With this series shifting back to Boston and the Celtics checking in as 14.5 point favorites, there is some major blowout potential which could lead to a few less minutes for Tatum tonight. Look for the Celtics to close out Cleveland in what should be a low scoring environment with minimal possessions.
This is a huge scoring prop for Jrue Holiday who is averaging 10.1 PPG in these playoffs and has been held under this number in seven of nine playoff games. Holiday has had back to back games scoring at least 16 points however he has 7/12 three point field goal attempts which is going to be difficult to sustain, especially in a paced down low scoring environment. Holiday logged 43 minutes in Game 4 after failing to eclipse 38 minutes during this playoff run. Holiday played significantly more than both Jaylen Brown and Derrick White which I also don't believe will be the case in Game 5 tonight.
Alec Marsh has been a pleasant surprise for the 26-18 Royals this season. Marsh owns a sterling 2.53 ERA and has gone at least 5 IP in 4/6 starts this season. Marsh will be facing a Mariners lineup that has been just dismal this season. I also like that Marsh will be in one of the most pitcher friendly environments at T-Mobile Park in Seattle.
Martin Perez has gone at least 5.1 IP in five of his last seven starts. Perez will face a Brewers lineup that really struggles against opposing southpaws as they possess the 6th lowest OPS, paired with the 4th highest K Rate. Perez threw just 73 pitches in his last outing against the Angels and I like his chances to go 6 IP today.